国家气候变化影响评估报告摘要
一、中国气候变化的事实
温度变化:近100年来中国年地表平均气温明显增加。升温幅度约为0.5-0.8℃,比同期全球平均值(0.6℃±0.2℃)略强。在最近的50年,我国年平均地表气温增加1.1℃,增温速率为0.22℃/10年,明显高于全球或北半球同期平均增温速率。 降水变化:近100年和近50年中国年降水量变化趋势不显著,但年代际波动较大。近50年全国平均的年降水量同样没有呈现显著趋势变化,但降水量趋势存在明显的区域差异。从19xx年到20xx年,长江中下游和东南地区、西部大部分地区、以及东北北部和内蒙古大部分的年降水量有不同程度增加;但是,我国华北、西北东部、东北南部等地区年降水量出现下降趋势。 其他要素变化:近50年中国的日照时间、水面蒸发量、近地面平均风速、总云量均呈显著减少趋势。风速减少最明显的地区在中国西北。
极端气候事件变化:近50年,中国全国平均炎热日数呈现先下降后增加趋势,近20多年上升较明显。19xx年以来,全国平均霜冻日数减少了10天左右。中国近50年来寒潮事件频数显著下降。华北和东北地区干旱趋重,长江中下游流域和东南地区洪涝加重。20世纪90年代以来登陆我国的台风数量呈下降趋势,我国北方包括沙尘暴在内的沙尘天气事件出现频率总体上呈下
降趋势,但20xx年的沙尘暴明显多于20xx年,这一现象引起了科学家的关注。
中国气候变化与全球气候变化的区域响应,趋势基本相同,但也有差异。这是由于区域的气候强迫因子不同所造成的,但人类活动是造成近50年气候变化主要因子这一结论是相同的。
近百年中国气温变化总的趋势与全球是一致的,并且比全球平均略高。变暖主要出现在冬季。中国大气温室气体浓度观测结果也与全球代表性台站(如Mauna Loa)的一致。降水从上世纪50年代中后期至今表现增加趋势,也与全球情况一致。海平面上升增加的趋势和量值与全球基本一致。其它一些气象与环境变量也大致表现出与全球一致的变化,如冰川退化,极端天气与气候频率与强度增加等。上述事实表明,中国的区域气候变化与全球气候变化有密切关联,作为气候系统的一部分,对全球整个气候系统变化的响应十分明显。
但是中国的气候变化也表现出一些明显不同的特征。这主要反映在三个方面:(1)中国20世纪20-40年代的增温十分明显,远大于全球和北半球平均值。(2)中国的降水表现出“南涝北旱”型,主要反映了由自然因素引起的年代际变化(70-100年时间尺度)。(3)近40年,青藏高原冬春积雪的增加与欧亚春季积雪减少趋势也正好相反。其原因尚不完全清楚。因而研究这些方面的差异及其原因将有助于深入了解中国气候变化的特点及机制。
二、气候变化已经产生的影响
历史上已经发生的气候变化对中国自然生态系统和社会经济的影响是多方面的。
20世纪50年代以来,中国沿海海平面每年上升了1.4mm~
3.2mm, 渤海和黄海北部冰情等级下降,西北冰川面积减少了21%,西藏冻土最大减薄了4m~5m,某些高原内陆湖泊水面升高,青海和甘南牧区产草量下降,西南地区、三江平原和青海的湿地面积减少,功能衰退。20世纪80年代以来,春季物候期提前了2~4天,近年来海南和广西海域发现珊瑚白化现象。
北方干旱受灾面积扩大,南方洪涝加重。农业生产的不稳定性增加,局部干旱高温危害加重。20世纪50年代以来,中国六大江河的实测径流量都呈下降趋势,北方部分河流发生断流。同时,局部地区洪涝灾害频繁发生,特别是19xx年以来,长江、珠江、松花江、淮河、太湖、黄河均连续发生多次大洪水,洪灾损失日趋严重。中国海岸带已经受到气候变化和海平面上升的影响,风暴潮、洪水、强降雨和干旱等极端天气/气候事件对沿海地区造成的灾害更明显,其中对黄河、长江和珠江三角洲的社会经济产生的影响最为严重。西南山地灾害的波动周期缩短,成灾频次和损失增多。气候变化增加了疾病发生和传播的机会,危害人类健康,洪涝灾害后,感染性腹泻如霍乱、痢疾、伤寒增加。
三、气候变暖导致了更频繁和更极端的天气与气候事件
气候变化不仅代表气候平均值的变化,还包括变化幅度或距平值的变化。这两种变化都会使小概率的天气与气候事件的出现概率增加,也会使原来未曾出现的天气气候事件出现。
在气候变暖条件下,平均值的增加会使更暖的天气与气候事件的出现频率增加,而使更冷的天气与气候事件频率减少。因而,随着地球变暖导致较高的蒸发和降水速率,高温、风暴等极端事件将变得更为频繁,而寒冷极端事件将会减少。另一方面,更多的降水将发生在更短的时间内,因而降水的强度将增加。
中国科学家利用近百年资料和分辨率较高的区域气候模式对极端天气事件进行的分析和模拟表明,温室效应将使中国区域的日最高和最低气温明显升高,日较差减小。模拟得到的年平均日最高气温的显著增加区基本位于中国南部,而最低气温在黄河以北和长江以南的增加更显著。温室效应可能会导致在中国地区强降水事件的出现频次继续增加。南方部分地区大雨日数将有显著增加,特别是福建和江西西部,以及西南的贵州、四川、云南部分地区,表明这里未来暴雨天气会增多,气候有恶化趋势。另一方面,预测也表明,将来的台风强度将增加,我国将可能面临更强台风的影响。中国干旱区的面积也可能会扩大,干旱强度加剧。
第二篇:气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅲ):中国应对气候变化对策的综合评价
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Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2006, 2 (4): 147-153
Q?????? !W???? !"#$%&'???????????? !"#$%!&'()*+153
National Assessment Report on Climate Change (III):
Integrated evaluation of strategies on response to
climate change in China
HE Jiankun1, LIU Bin1, CHEN Ying2, XU Huaqing3, GUO Yuan3, HU Xiulian2,
ZHANG Xiliang1, LI Yu’e4, ZHANG Aling1, CHEN Wenying 1, WEI Zhihong1,
1??DUAN Maosheng1, ZHANG Xiaohua1, LU Yingyun
( 1 Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2 Research Center for Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China; 3 Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform
Commission, Beijing 100038, China; 4 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China )
Abstract: Climate change is increasingly becoming the hotspot issue of glolal attention. On the basis of review ofthe process in response to climate change of international community, the status of carbon emissions of the world andChina, the technology potential for China to mitigate carbon emissions have been analyzed. Meanwhile, the macro-impacts of China’s mitigation of carbon emissions, the equity of global mitigation of climate change, and the impactsof international cooperation actions in the field of climate change have also been explored. In view of the analysesthe ideas and strategies of China’s mitigation of climate change are put forward, indicating that China should positivelyadapt to the trends of international political, economic and trade pattern change and bring the strategies of mitigatingclimate change into national social and economic development strategy and planning to promote comprehensive,harmonious and sustainable development of national economy and society under the situation of global response toclimate change.
Key words: climate change; social and economic impacts; mitigation of carbon emissions; strategies; assessment
Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2006, 2 (4): 147-153
???? !"1951J2005???? !"#$%&'(??)*+,
???? !???? !"#$%&'()*+,-./01234
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