21世纪信息技术
19xx年8月美国总统信息技术咨询委员会给总统的报告，基于美国在全球竞争中的地位、国家安全、人民生活质量改进等战略高度,提出21世纪信息技术中优先研究（或者说重点投资研究）的四个方面是：软件、可扩展信息基础设施、高端计算(High-End Computing)、信息时代的社会经济与就业问题。之后每年在各个方面都有具体的建议报告给总统。9.11后的报告则突出强调国家安全问题。本文依据98报告及其后的有关报告，介绍美国在这四个方面的研究内容。
1 软件
软件是国家的一种新的物理设施，是经济、科技和国家安全的基础。微处理器的快速发展使得越来越多的功能可以由软件实现。人们依赖（或者说“期望”）的软件应该是无故障、可因需求改变而修改、提供更多功能更好性能的软件。但是，人们的这个期望并不总是能满足的。
1.1 问题
信息技术的“爆炸性”增长，引发的新的基础服务要求软件支持，要求越来越快，复杂性越来越高，劳动力密集与劳动储备的短缺以及难以适应科学技术要求，国家的软件生产能力不能满足要求。第二，国家需要健壮的软件，然而，系统所依赖的软件基本上是脆弱的（即不可靠、不安全、有故障、升级困难）。总统信息安全顾问警告，依赖Internet的政府网络，任何时候都可能出现“数字珍珠港“事件。软件提交后的故障排除大多依赖于用户的发现。70%的软件提交滞后、超预算，不满足要求或被淘汰。第三，现在的技术不适应开发可靠、安全的软件。构造大型复杂系统和预料系统性能的能力不足。开发的自动化程度、复用程度、系统分析和系统测试的完全性评价能力都很低。尽管有很多标准，但是应用标准的水平以及文档与代码的一致性很差。第四，对于基础软件研究的国家投入较低。这种情况造成了硬件现实能力与它的理论潜力之间的差距。联邦高性能计算和通信计划（HPCC）认为“软件先进性存在的危机影响了高性能群集并行计算机体系结构的成功”。另外，注重解决现实问题的短期投资行为，影响了年青专家的培育。
1.2 建议
美国总统IT咨询委员会把软件放到国家基础设施的重要位置。针对上述问题，建议特别强调“国家必需给基础软件的研究予绝对的优先权”。否则，不足以解决开发不满足需求、软件不满足硬件、基础研究不应用要求的矛盾。9.11之后，安全的软件在国家安全、遭受打击抵御风险的重要性更得到重视。具体的建议有：
设立专项基金在软件开发方法和构件技术方面的基础研究：（1）基于构件的设计和生产技术及其支持软件构件工业的科学技术理论；（2）可靠构件及其组装的可容错系统的检测技术；（3）支持自动化的构件分析、模拟、测试、集成的理论、语言、工具；（4）集成安全的构件到安全的系统的证实技术；（5）在广域网络上并行运行的应用之间进行交互的协议和数据结构。
赞助在面向领域主题的国家软件构件库的建设。总统IT咨询委员会认为在软件方法和构件技术研究的基础上，有必要启动一个建设国家软件构件库的计划以支持科学、工程和教育。构件库应该有测试构件的方法和技术、集成健壮软件的标准、登记和分享的规则。然而，这还只是一个正在考虑的目标，还有若干问题需要研究：（1）高级的构件规格说明机制；（2）构件的可靠性和性能保证；
（3）构件的进化；（4）不可预见的构件应用障碍；（5）现成软件（COTS, Commercial-Off-The-Shelf） 的发现和集成；（6）构件库组织有关的知识产权；（7）防范侵害的完整性保护；（8）构件成熟度的
检验；（9）构件库存取的国家信息平台。
所支持的软件研究目标必需同时支持国家IT研究的目标。例如，支持“可扩展信息基础设施”建设所要求的软件可扩展性、分布式、可靠性研究，以及“高端计算”所要求的软件体系结构。
9.11事件后，美国总统的IT安全顾问Richard A. Clarke给布什总统的建议，提出建设脱离Internet的政府网络GovNet，可能花费数亿美元。GovNet仍将基于Internet协议（IP）但不与商业的或公众的网络连接，具有防范其它网络用户进入或干扰的能力。
2 可扩展信息基础设施
2.1 问题
信息基础设施是提供通信和信息存取服务的互连的电讯网络和计算机。可扩展信息基础设施强调的是服务的可扩展性，这是一个极富挑战性的问题。第一，Internet不仅用户数量每年在成倍增长，而且服务的要求也因IT技术的进步而多种多样。例如，卫星和无线通讯应用于信息基础设施，推动了“anytime, anywhere”式的信息存储、查询、电子邮件、付费系统的要求。第二，国家对信息基础设施的依赖性在与日俱增。与人们生活关系极大的服务，如电话、广播、电视、交通、电力网络、银行业务、订货和服务请求、娱乐、医疗、政府服务等，都要依靠计算机网络。第三，Internet应用的持续增长，增加了信息基础设施的系统复杂性，某些服务请求和相应的技术提出来了，但是我们不知道它们是否能够可靠地、有效地、安全地与系统的其它部分一起工作。第四，大规模、高可靠、安全的系统扩展问题：健壮、高速地存取以提高交互质量；信息的多个“刻面”（不同视角呈现的性质）表达以提供与人的多种连接；提供无处不在的存取以扩展服务面；可靠的高质量服务（认证、资源目录、搜索引擎、数据仓库等）；真实的信息设施（知识产权、隐私权的保护，系统故障和系统被攻击的防范）。
2.2 建议
增加直接对上述可扩展信息基础设施问题的核心软件和通信技术研究的投资。建议的三个关键领域是：（1）可扩展性研究，包括具有更大的多样性和能够表达上百万个性能因子的大复杂系统的模型，流量模型，不同条件下模拟网络性能的聚合各种要求的效果模型，支持标准的适应性和可扩展性的测试和检验工具，支持可扩展性、海量用户业务处理、滤除大量不真实数据的软件算法。（2）物理的可分布性研究，包括地理上的分布带来的可靠通信和安全通信的问题，大量计算机接入，特别是移动主机（Mobile host）、多级服务搜寻等所带来的困难，网络容量与阻塞的处理，多种硬件混杂、多种服务软件的交互操作问题。（3）可用性研究，包括用户模型和人的因素在web浏览器的普适性，智能信息检索系统，话音和图像的理解系统，人机智能会话系统，支持安全、隐私保护、网络检测管理、数据库管理、业务处理、应用集成的软件作为计算部件和通信部件开发。
下一代Internet实验平台（Testbed）的研究，这个实验平台将吸引所有工业伙伴的参与，它的实验投资超过了任何一个公司的能力，大到足够测试整个系统，提供硬件、软件、协议、服务、网络管理的概念验证。实验平台将推动参加的工业伙伴的快速贸易和技术的合理应用。
3 高端计算
随着19xx年美国高性能计算法案通过，联邦高性能计算和通信计划（HPCC）启动，其目的是促进创新、增强国家安全和推进教育。历史上的高性能计算处理的是计算敏感的应用，使用的是昂贵的高性能超级计算机。但在今天，HPCC上游研究的技术已经向中游发生了重大转移，从纯计算敏感的应用转向数据敏感和通信敏感的应用，超级计算机体系结构转向对称多处理器和并行系统体系结
构。高性能计算的概念也扩展为“高端计算”的概念。高端计算主要面向三个高技术市场：（1）数据敏感和通信敏感市场的高端应用，如数据挖掘、web服务、数字资料库（Digital Library）、事务处理等，这是一个发展很快很好的市场；（2）基于微机的大规模计算敏感的市场，由于软件技术的缺陷，在市场的高端如并行计算还有要研究和实验的问题；（3）基于矢量体系结构计算的市场，这是一个萎缩的市场，是老的体系结构应用依然存在的市场。
3.1 问题
高端计算是科学和工程研究的基础，在今后的几十年里，高端计算的基础研究性质只会变得更强。高端计算的市场至少一半在国家组织机构，政府要完成从超级计算机应用到新的高端计算体系结构应用的转移还存在技术困难。高端计算在整个IT工业有些萎缩，然而，它的应用开发至少在人工智能、计算机辅助设计和辅助工程、交通管理、风险控制、大规模网络设施方面有优势。由于中、低端市场的参与，国外竞争的影响，高端计算系统面临着不寻常的压力。
3.2 建议
高端计算研究的一个很强的推动力就是在20xx年将要达到的千万亿次计算能力。建议的第一个内容就是支持计算技术和体系结构的创新研究。当前的并行计算体系结构并不适应很多重要应用的要求，特别是高度不规则的计算和要求在内存进行海量计算的场合，因此需要推出新的计算机体系结构（高效并行性和分级存储器体系）和新的计算技术（光、量子、DNA计算）。第二是改进高端计算性能的软件研发，重要的是推出支持新的计算机体系结构的操作系统和算法。第三是研发的投资导向使新体系结构、系统软件、算法、硬件技术达到紧耦合的平衡发展，试图达到20xx年支持千万亿次计算的实际应用。第四是支持科学与工程研究的更强有力的高端计算。第五是政府的高端计算项目（HECC）应把所有有关的项目纳入通盘考虑。
4 信息时代的社会经济与就业
越来越先进的技术在改变着我们的社会、经济、文化。研究信息技术的采用和传播对国家社会经济、劳动者就业的影响，成了国家要用新技术推动社会进步的重要课题。
4.1 IT对社会经济的影响及研究课题
IT对于社会、经济、政治、文化的影响似乎无处不在，尽管涉及这种影响的许多推断还缺乏真实可靠的数据支持，但是以下的事实是显而易见的。为保证国家能够适应信息时代的挑战与机遇，必须扩展人们的IT文化知识，使用IT工具进行学习、研究、交流、协作的能力；吸引更多的企业、学校、研究所参与IT研究（扩展和增强研究、教育、企业机制的课题）。IT工具的应用，减小了因人的种族、性别、年龄、残疾、收入、居住地等原因造成的不公正机会的影响（减小IT负面影响的课题）。IT，特别是Internet的应用，引发了许多重要、复杂的问题，如隐私权、知识产权、商业
秘密等，这些问题影响着国家政策；一些影响着IT发展的社会、政治、法律壁垒受到了IT利益的挑战，例如，地理信息系统（GIS）碰到的跨组织数据共享问题、电子商贸的真实性问题、电子医疗的（跨州）许可权问题（政治、经济、社会、法律壁垒研究课题）。社会科学的研究影响着信息系统的设计，如“人群将怎样分享信息做出决策”的研究直接推动着“组件”的开发（IT工业自调节解决社会复杂问题的课题）。电子商贸在国家经济的角色及其影响，经济、法律法规、市场等因素对于电讯公司投资于国家信息基础设施建设的影响（激励企业投资国家建设的课题）。
4.2 IT对劳动就业的影响及建议课题
国家经济对IT的依赖越来越强，但是接受过电子计算、信息、通信技能再教育的劳动者并不多，国家必须通过教育渠道（学校，从基本教育到继续教育）帮助劳动者掌握信息时代的劳动技能。工业界对于R&D专门人才需求的快速增长，使得教育和培养专门人才也成了国家实验室和培训中心的紧迫任务。应当鼓励电子工程和计算机科学的学生继续学习达到博士学位。公司的发展规模起决于公司可能雇佣到的专门人才（而不是一般本科毕业就业者）的多少。但是美国这两个专业获得博士学位的人数却出现下滑趋势，每100个硕士生中只有5个、每100个博士生中只有6个学生学习这类专业。对于就业者二次教育的缺乏的确是造成国家的人才供求矛盾的一个原因。吸引国外专门人才充实紧缺的劳动力市场，可能缓解国家的人才供求矛盾。建议（1）增加培养高技术劳动者的教育投资（增加师资，特别是具有博士学位的科学家师资）；（2）发展继续教育以更新劳动者技能；（3）鼓励妇女和少数民族参与IT教育。 （丁志强，20xx年1月）
第二篇：美国总统经济报告
c h a p t e r 2
ReSCUING tHe eCONOMY
FROM tHe GReAt ReCeSSION
the first and most fundamental task the Administration faced when
President Obama took office was to rescue an economy in freefall. In
November 2008, employment was declining at a rate of more than
half a
million jobs per month, and credit markets were stretched almost to
the
breaking point. As the economy entered 2009, the decline accelerated, with
job loss in January reaching almost three-quarters of a million. the President
responded by working with Congress to take unprecedented actions. these
steps, together with measures taken by the Federal Reserve and other finan-
cial regulators, have succeeded in stabilizing the economy and
beginning
the process of healing a severely shaken economic and financial system. But
much work remains. With high unemployment and continued job losses, it
is clear that recovery must remain the key focus of 2010.
An Economy in Freefall
According to the National Bureau of economic Research, the United
States entered a recession in December 2007. Unlike most postwar reces-
sions, this downturn was not caused by tight monetary policy
aimed at
curbing inflation. Although economists will surely analyze this downturn
extensively in the years to come, there is widespread consensus
that its
central precipitating factor was a boom and bust in asset prices, especially
house prices. the boom was fueled in part by irresponsible and
in some
cases predatory lending practices, risky investment strategies, faulty credit
ratings, and lax regulation. When the boom ended, the result was
wide-
spread defaults and crippling blows to key financial institutions, magnifying
the decline in house prices and causing enormous spillovers to the remainder
of the economy.
39
The Run-Up to the Recession
the rise in house prices during the boom was remarkable. As Figure
2-1 shows, real house prices almost doubled between 1997 and 2006. By
2006, they were more than 50 percent above the highest level they had
reached in the 20th century.
Figure 2-1
House Prices Adjusted for Inflation
Index (1900 100)
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009
Sources: Shiller (2005); recent data from http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/Fig2-1.xls.
Stock prices also rose rapidly. the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500, for example, rose 101 percent between its low in 2002 and its high in 2007.
that rise, though dramatic, was not unprecedented. Indeed, in the five
years before its peak in March 2000, during the ―tech bubble,‖ the S&P 500 rose 205 percent, while the more technology-focused NASDAQ index rose 506 percent.
the run-up in asset prices was associated with a surge in construc-
tion and consumer spending. Residential construction rose sharply as
developers responded to the increase in housing demand. From the fourth
quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2005, the residential
investment
component of real GDP rose at an average annual rate of nearly 8 percent. Similarly, consumers responded to the increases in the value of their assets
by continuing to spend freely. Saving rates, which had been declining since the early 1980s, fell to about 2 percent during the two years before the reces- sion. this spending was facilitated by low interest rates and easy credit, with household borrowing rising faster than incomes.
40 | Chapter 2
The Downturn
House prices began to drop in some markets in 2006, and then
nationally beginning in 2007. this process was gradual at first, with prices
measured using the LoanPerformance house price index declining just 3? percent nationally between January and June 2007. Lenders had lent
aggressively during the boom, often providing mortgages whose soundness hinged on continued house price appreciation. As a result, the compara-
tively modest decline in house prices threatened large losses on subprime
residential mortgages (the riskiest class of mortgages), as well as on the
slightly higher-quality ―Alt-A‖ mortgages. As the availability of mortgage
credit tightened, the downward pressure on real estate prices intensified.
National house prices declined 6 percent between June and December 2007.
the negative feedback between credit availability and the housing
market weighed on household and business confidence, restraining consumer
spending and business investment. Although residential construction
led the slowdown in real activity through 2007, by early 2008 outlays for
consumer goods and services and business equipment and software had
decelerated sharply, and total employment was beginning to decline. Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell slightly in the first quarter of 2008.
In February 2008, Congress passed a temporary tax cut. Figure 2-2 shows real after-tax (or disposable) income and consumer spending before
and after rebate checks were issued. Consumption was maintained despite
a tremendous decline in household wealth over the same period. total
household and nonprofit net worth declined 9.1 percent between June
2007 and June 2008. Microeconomic studies of consumer behavior in this episode confirm the role of the tax rebate in maintaining spending (Broda and Parker 2008; Sahm, Shapiro, and Slemrod 2009). the fact that real GDP
reversed course and grew in the second quarter of 2008 is further tribute
to the helpfulness of the policy. But, in part because of the lack of robust, sustained stimulus, growth did not continue.
Financial institutions had invested heavily in assets whose values were tied to the value of mortgages. For many reasons—the opacity of the instru-
ments, the complexity of financial institutions’ balance sheets and their
―off-balance-sheet‖ exposures, the failure of credit-rating agencies to accu- rately identify the riskiness of the assets, and poor regulatory oversight—the extent of the institutions’ exposure to mortgage default risk was obscured.
When mortgage defaults rose, the result was unexpectedly large losses to
many financial institutions.
In the fall of 2008, the nature of the downturn changed dramatically.
More rapid declines in asset prices generated further loss of confidence
in the ability of some of the world’s largest financial institutions to honor
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 41
Figure 2-2
Income and Consumption Around the 2008 Tax Rebate
Billions of 2005 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate
10,400
Disposable Personal Income
10,200
10,000
9,800
9,600
9,400
Personal Consumption Expenditures
9,200
9,000
Jan-2007 Jul-2007 Jan-2008 Jul-2008 Jan-2009 Jul-2009
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), National Income and
Product Accounts Table 2.6, line 30, and Table 2.8.6, line 1.
their obligations. In September, the Lehman Brothers investment bank
declared bankruptcy, and other large financial firms (including American
International Group, Washington Mutual, and Merrill Lynch) were forced
to seek government aid or to merge with stronger institutions. What
followed was a rush to liquidity and a cascading of retrenchment that had
many of the features of a classic financial panic.
Risk spreads shot up to extraordinary levels. Figure 2-3 shows both the teD spread and Moody’s BAA-AAA spread. the teD spread is the
difference between the rate on short-term loans among banks and a safe
short-term treasury interest rate. the BAA-AAA spread is the difference
between the interest rates on high-grade and medium-grade corporate bonds. Both spreads rose dramatically during the heart of the panic. Indeed, one way to put the spike in the BAA-AAA spread in perspective is to note
that the same spread barely moved during the Great Crash of the stock
market in 1929, and rose by only about half as much during the first wave of banking panics in 1930 as it did in the fall of 2008.
the same loss of confidence shown by the rise in credit spreads
translated into declining asset prices of all sorts. the S&P 500 declined
29 percent in the second half of 2008. Real house prices tumbled another
11 percent over the same period (see Figure 2-1). All told, household and
42 | Chapter 2
Figure 2-3
TED Spread and Moody’s BAA-AAA Spread Through December 2008
Percentage points
5
Oct. 10, 2008
4
3
Aug. 20, 2007
2
TED BAA-AAA
1
Dec-2005 Jun-2006 Dec-2006 Jun-2007 Dec-2007 Jun-2008 Dec-2008
Notes: The TED spread is defined as the three-month London Interbank Offered Rate
(Libor) less the yield on the three-month U.S. Treasury security. Moody’s BAA-AAA
spread is the difference between Moody's indexes of yields on AAA and BAA rated
corporate bonds.
Source: Bloomberg.
nonprofit net worth declined 20 percent between December 2007 and December 2008, or by about $13 trillion. Again, a useful way to calibrate
the size of this shock is to note that in 1929, household wealth declined only
3 percent—about one-seventh as much as in 2008. this is another indica-
tion that the shocks hitting the U.S. economy in 2008 were enormous.
the decline in wealth had a severe impact on consumer spending.
this key component of aggregate demand, which accounts for roughly
70 percent of GDP and is traditionally quite stable, declined at an annual
rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008 and 3.1 percent in the fourth
quarter. Some of this large decline may have also reflected the surge in
uncertainty about future incomes. Not only did asset prices fall
sharply,
leading to the decline in wealth; they also became dramatically more vola-
tile. the standard deviation of daily stock returns in the fourth quarter, for
example, was 4.3 percentage points, even larger than in the first months of
the Great Depression.
the financial panic led to a precipitous decline in lending. Bank
credit continued to rise over the latter portion of 2008, as households and
firms that had lost access to other forms of credit turned to banks. However, bank loans declined sharply in the first and second quarters of 2009 as banks tightened their terms and standards. Other sources of credit showed even
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 43
more substantial declines. One particularly important market is that for
commercial paper (short-term notes issued by firms to finance key operating costs such as payroll and inventory). the market for lower-tier nonfinancial
(A2/P2) commercial paper collapsed in the fall of 2008, with the average
daily value of new issues falling from $8.0 billion in the second quarter of
2008 to $4.3 billion in the fourth quarter. In addition, securitization of
automobile loans, credit card receivables, student loans, and commercial
mortgages ground to a halt.
this freezing of credit markets, together with the decline in wealth
and confidence, caused consumer spending and residential investment to
fall sharply. Real GDP declined at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the third
quarter of 2008, 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter, and 6.4 percent in the
first quarter of 2009. Industrial production, which had been falling steadily over the first eight months of 2008, plummeted in the final four months—
dropping at an annual rate of 18 percent.
Many industries were battered by the financial crisis and the resulting economic downturn. the American automobile industry was hit particu-
larly hard. Sales of light motor vehicles, which had exceeded 16 million
units every year from 1999 to 2007, fell to an annual rate of only 9.5 million
in the first quarter of 2009. employment in the motor vehicle and parts
industry declined by 240,000 over the 12 months through January
2009.
two domestic manufacturers, General Motors (GM) and Chrysler, required
emergency loans in late December 2008 and early January 2009 to avoid
disorderly bankruptcy.
the most disturbing manifestation of the rapid slowdown in the
economy was the dramatic increase in job loss. Over the first months of
2008, job losses were typically between 100,000 and 200,000 per month.
In October, the economy lost 380,000 jobs; in November, 597,000 jobs.
By January, the economy was losing jobs at a rate of 741,000 per month.
Commensurate with this terrible rate of job loss, the unemployment rate
rose rapidly—from 6.2 percent in September 2008 to 7.7 percent in January 2009. It then continued to rise by roughly one-half of a percentage point per month through the winter and spring; it reached 9.4 percent in May, and
ended the year at 10.0 percent.
Wall Street and Main Street
As described in more detail later, policymakers have focused much
of their response to the crisis on stabilizing the financial system. Many
Americans are troubled by these policies. Because to a large extent it was the actions of credit market participants that led to the crisis, people ask why policymakers should take actions focused on restoring credit markets.
44 | Chapter 2
the basic reason for these policies is that the health of credit markets is critically important to the functioning of our economy. Large firms use
commercial paper to finance their biweekly payrolls and pay suppliers for
materials to keep production lines going. Small firms rely on bank loans to meet their payrolls and pay for supplies while they wait for payment of their
accounts receivable. Home purchases depend on mortgages; automobile
purchases depend on car loans; college educations depend on student loans; and purchases of everyday items depend on credit cards.
the events of the past two years provide a dramatic demonstration
of the importance of credit in the modern economy. As the President said
in his inaugural address, ―Our workers are no less productive than when
this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services
no less needed.‖ Yet developments in financial markets—rises and falls
in home and equity prices and in the availability of credit—have led to a
collapse of spending, and hence to a precipitous decline in output and to
unemployment for millions.
Numerous academic studies before the crisis had also shown that the availability of credit is critical to investment, hiring, and production. One study, for example, found that when a parent company earns high profits
and so has less need to rely on credit, the additional funds lead to higher
investment by subsidiaries in completely unrelated lines of business (Lamont 1997). Another found that when a small change in a firm’s circumstances frees up a large amount of funds that would otherwise have to go to pension
contributions, the result is a large change in spending on capital goods
(Rauh 2006). Other studies have shown that when the Federal Reserve
tightens monetary policy, small firms, which typically have more difficulty obtaining financing, are hit especially hard (Gertler and Gilchrist 1994), and firms without access to public debt markets cut their inventories much more sharply than firms that have such access (Kashyap, Lamont, and Stein 1994). Research before the crisis had also found that financial market disrup- tions could affect the real economy. Ben Bernanke, who is now Chairman
of the Federal Reserve, demonstrated a link between the disruption of
lending caused by bank failures and the worsening of the Great Depression (Bernanke 1983). A smaller but more modern example is provided by the impact of Japan’s financial crisis in the 1990s on the United States: construc-
tion lending, new construction, and construction employment were more
adversely affected in U.S. states where subsidiaries of Japanese banks had
a larger role, and thus where credit availability was more affected by the
collapse of Japan’s bubble (Peek and Rosengren 2000). that a financial
disruption in a trading partner can have a detectable adverse impact on our economy through its impact on credit availability suggests that the effect of
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 45
a full-fledged financial crisis at home would be enormous—an implication
that, sadly, has proven to be correct.
Finally, microeconomic evidence from the recent crisis also shows the importance of the financial system to the real economy. For example, firms
that happened to have long-term debt coming due after the crisis began,
and thus faced high costs of refinancing, cut their investment much more
than firms that did not (Almeida et al. 2009). Another study found that a
majority of corporate chief financial officers surveyed reported that their
firms faced financing constraints during the crisis, and that the constrained
firms on average planned to reduce investment spending, research and
development, and employment sharply compared with the unconstrained firms (Campello, Graham, and Harvey 2009).
In short, the goal of the policies to stabilize the financial system was not to help financial institutions. the goal was to help ordinary Americans. When the financial system is not working, individuals and businesses cannot
get credit, demand and production plummet, and job losses skyrocket.
thus, an essential step in healing the real economy is to heal the financial
system. the alternative of letting financial institutions suffer the conse-
quences of their mistakes would have led to a collapse of credit markets and vastly greater suffering for millions and millions of Americans.
the policies to rescue the financial sector were, however, costly, and often had the side effect of benefiting the very institutions whose irrespon-
sible actions contributed to the crisis. that is one reason that the President
has endorsed a Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee on the largest financial
firms to repay the Federal Government for its extraordinary actions. As
discussed in Chapter 6, the Administration has also proposed a compre-
hensive plan for financial regulatory reform that will help ensure that Wall
Street does not return to the risky practices that were a central cause of the
recent crisis.
The Unprecedented Policy Response
Given the magnitude of the shocks that hit the economy in the fall of 2008 and the winter of 2009, the downturn could have turned into a second
Great Depression. that it has not is a tribute to the aggressive and effec-
tive policy response. this response involved the Federal Reserve and other
financial regulators, the Administration, and Congress. the policy tools
were similarly multifaceted, including monetary policy, financial market interventions, fiscal policy, and policies targeted specifically at housing.
46 | Chapter 2
a full-fledged financial crisis at home would be enormous—an implication
that, sadly, has proven to be correct.
Finally, microeconomic evidence from the recent crisis also shows the importance of the financial system to the real economy. For example, firms
that happened to have long-term debt coming due after the crisis began,
and thus faced high costs of refinancing, cut their investment much more
than firms that did not (Almeida et al. 2009). Another study found that a
majority of corporate chief financial officers surveyed reported that their
firms faced financing constraints during the crisis, and that the constrained
firms on average planned to reduce investment spending, research and
development, and employment sharply compared with the unconstrained firms (Campello, Graham, and Harvey 2009).
In short, the goal of the policies to stabilize the financial system was not to help financial institutions. the goal was to help ordinary Americans. When the financial system is not working, individuals and businesses cannot
get credit, demand and production plummet, and job losses skyrocket.
thus, an essential step in healing the real economy is to heal the financial
system. the alternative of letting financial institutions suffer the conse-
quences of their mistakes would have led to a collapse of credit markets and vastly greater suffering for millions and millions of Americans.
the policies to rescue the financial sector were, however, costly, and often had the side effect of benefiting the very institutions whose irrespon-
sible actions contributed to the crisis. that is one reason that the President
has endorsed a Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee on the largest financial
firms to repay the Federal Government for its extraordinary actions. As
discussed in Chapter 6, the Administration has also proposed a compre-
hensive plan for financial regulatory reform that will help ensure that Wall
Street does not return to the risky practices that were a central cause of the
recent crisis.
The Unprecedented Policy Response
Given the magnitude of the shocks that hit the economy in the fall of 2008 and the winter of 2009, the downturn could have turned into a second Great Depression. that it has not is a tribute to the aggressive and effec-
tive policy response. this response involved the Federal Reserve and other
financial regulators, the Administration, and Congress. the policy tools
were similarly multifaceted, including monetary policy, financial market interventions, fiscal policy, and policies targeted specifically at housing.
46 | Chapter 2
Monetary Policy
the first line of defense against a weak economy is the interest rate policy of the independent Federal Reserve. By increasing or decreasing the quantity of reserves it supplies to the banking system, the Federal Reserve can lower or raise the Federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which
banks lend to one another. the funds rate influences other interest rates
in the economy and so has important effects on economic activity. Using changes in the target level of the funds rate as their main tool of counter-
cyclical policy, monetary policymakers had kept inflation low and the real economy remarkably stable for more than two decades.
the Federal Reserve has used interest rate policy aggressively in the recent episode. the target level of the funds rate at the beginning of 2007 was 5? percent. the Federal Reserve cut the target by 1 percentage point over the last four months of 2007 and by an additional 2? percentage points over the first four months of 2008. After the events of September, it cut the target in three additional steps in October and December, bringing it to its current level of 0 to ? percent.
Conventional interest rate policy, however, could do little to deal
with the enormous disruptions to credit markets. As a result, the Federal Reserve has used a range of unconventional tools to address those disrup-
tions directly. For example, in March 2008, it created the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the term Securities Lending Facility to provide liquidity support for primary dealers (that is, financial institutions that trade directly
with the Federal Reserve) and the key financial markets in which they
operate. In October 2008, when the critical market for commercial paper threatened to stop functioning, the Federal Reserve responded by setting up
the Commercial Paper Funding Facility to backstop the market.
Once the Federal Reserve’s target for the funds rate was effectively
lowered to zero in December 2008, there was another reason to use uncon-
ventional tools. Nominal interest rates generally cannot fall below zero:
because holding currency guarantees a nominal return of zero, no one is
willing to make loans at a negative nominal interest rate. As a result, when
the Federal funds rate is zero, supplying more reserves does not drive it
lower. Statistical estimates suggest that based on the Federal Reserve’s usual response to inflation and unemployment, the subdued level of inflation and the weak state of the economy would have led the central bank to reduce its target for the funds rate by about an additional 5 percentage points if it could have (Rudebusch 2009).
this desire to provide further stimulus, coupled with the inability to use conventional interest rate policy, led the Federal Reserve to undertake
large-scale asset purchases to reduce long-term interest rates. In March
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 47
2009, the Federal Reserve announced plans to purchase up to $300 billion of long-term treasury debt; it also announced plans to increase its purchases of the debt of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks (the government-sponsored enterprises, or GSes, that support the mortgage market) to up to $200 billion, and its purchases of agency (that is, Fannie
Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae) mortgage-backed securities to up to
$1.25 trillion.
Finally, the Federal Reserve has attempted to manage expectations by providing information about its goals and the likely path of policy. Officials
have consistently stressed their commitment to ensuring that inflation neither falls substantially below nor rises substantially above its usual level. In addition, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated that economic condi-
tions ―are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the Federal funds
rate for an extended period.‖ to the extent this statement provides market participants with information they did not already have, it is likely to keep longer-term interest rates lower than they otherwise would be.
One effect of the Federal Reserve’s unconventional policies has been an enormous expansion of the quantity of assets on the Federal Reserve’s
balance sheet. Figure 2-4 shows the evolution of Federal Reserve asset hold-
ings since the beginning of 2007. One can see both that asset holdings nearly tripled between January and December 2008 and that there was a dramatic
move away from short-term treasury securities.
Figure 2-4
Assets on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
Billions of dollars
2,400
Other
2,000
Long-term treasuries and agency debt
Short-term treasuries
1,600
1,200
800
400
Jan-2007 Jul-2007 Jan-2008 Jul-2008 Jan-2009 Jul-2009
Notes: Agency debt refers to obligations of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home
Loan Banks. Agency mortgage-backed securities are also included in this category.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, H.4.1 Table 1.
48 | Chapter 2
the flip side of the large increase in the Federal Reserve’s asset
holdings is a large increase in the quantity of reserves it has supplied to the
financial system. Some observers have expressed concern that the large
expansion in reserves could lead to inflation. In this regard, two key points
should be kept in mind. First, as already described, most statistical models
suggest that the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate would be substan-
tially lower than it is today if it were not constrained by the fact that the
Federal funds rate cannot fall below zero. As a result, monetary policy is in fact unusually tight given the state of the economy, not unusually loose.
Second, the Federal Reserve has the tools it needs to prevent the reserves
from leading to inflation. It can drain the reserves from the financial system through sales of the assets it has acquired or other actions. Indeed, despite the weak state of the economy, the return of credit market conditions toward normal is leading to the natural unwinding of some of the exceptional credit market programs. Another reliable way the Federal Reserve can keep the
reserves from creating inflationary pressure is by using its relatively new
ability to raise the interest rate it pays on reserves: banks will be unwilling to lend the reserves at low interest rates if they can obtain a higher return on their balances held at the Federal Reserve.
Financial Rescue
efforts to stabilize the financial system have been a central part of
the policy response. As just discussed, even before the financial crisis in
September 2008, the Federal Reserve was taking steps to ease pressures
on credit markets. the events of the fall led to even stronger actions. On
September 7, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed in conservator-
ship under the Federal Housing Finance Agency to prevent a potentially
severe disruption of mortgage lending. On September 16, concern about
the potentially catastrophic effects of a disorderly failure of American
International Group (AIG) caused the Federal Reserve to extend the firm an $85 billion line of credit. On September 19, concerns about the possibility
of runs on money-market mutual funds led the treasury to announce a
temporary guarantee program for these funds.
On October 3, Congress passed and President Bush signed the
emergency economic Stabilization Act of 2008. this Act provided
up
to $700 billion for the troubled Asset Relief Program (tARP) for the
purchase of distressed assets and for capital injections into financial institu-
tions, although the second $350 billion required presidential notification
to Congress and could be disallowed by a vote of both houses. the initial $350 billion was used mainly to purchase preferred equity shares in finan- cial institutions, thereby providing the institutions with more capital to help them withstand the crisis.
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 49
At President-elect Obama’s request, President Bush notified Congress on January 12, 2009 of his plan to release the second $350 billion of tARP funds. With strong support from the incoming Administration, the Senate defeated a resolution disapproving the release. these funds provided policy- makers with critical resources needed to ensure financial stability.
On February 10, 2009, Secretary of the treasury timothy Geithner
announced the Administration’s Financial Stability Plan. the plan repre-
sented a new, comprehensive approach to the financial rescue that sought
to tackle the interlocking sources of instability and increase credit flows.
An overarching theme was a focus on transparency and accountability to
rebuild confidence in financial markets and protect taxpayer resources.
A key element of the plan was the Supervisory Capital Assessment
Program (or ―stress test‖). the purpose was to assess the capital needs of
the country’s 19 largest financial institutions should economic and finan-
cial conditions deteriorate further. Institutions that were found to need an
additional capital buffer would be encouraged to raise private capital and
would be provided with temporary government capital if those efforts did
not succeed. this program was intended not just to examine the capital
positions of the institutions and ensure that they obtained more capital if
needed, but also to strengthen private investors’ confidence in the soundness of the institutions’ balance sheets, and so strengthen the institutions’ ability to obtain private capital.
Another element of the plan was the Consumer and Business Lending Initiative, which was aimed at maintaining the flow of credit. In November
2008, the Federal Reserve had created the term Asset-Backed Securities
Loan Facility to help counteract the dramatic decline in securitized lending. In the February announcement of the Financial Stability Plan, the treasury
greatly expanded the resources of the not-yet-implemented facility. the
treasury increased its commitment to $100 billion to leverage up to $1 tril-
lion of lending for businesses and households. By facilitating securitization, the program was designed to help unfreeze credit and lower interest rates
for auto loans, credit card loans, student loans, and small business loans
guaranteed by the Small Business Administration (SBA).
A third element of the plan was a treasury partnership with the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Federal Reserve to create
the Public-Private Investment Program. A central purpose was to remove
troubled assets from the balance sheets of financial institutions, thereby
reducing uncertainty about their financial strength and increasing their ability to raise capital and hence their willingness to lend. Partnership with the private sector served two important objectives: it leveraged scarce public
funds, and it used private competition and incentives to ensure that the
government did not overpay for assets.
50 | Chapter 2
there were two other key components of the Financial Stability Plan. One was a wide-ranging program to reduce mortgage interest rates and help responsible homeowners stay in their homes. these policies are described
later in the section on housing policy. the other component was a range
of measures to help small businesses. Many of these were included in the
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and are discussed in the section on fiscal stimulus.
Failure of the two troubled domestic automakers (GM and Chrysler)
threatened economy-wide repercussions that would have been magnified by related problems at the automakers’ associated financial institutions (GMAC and Chrysler Financial). to avoid these consequences, the Bush
Administration set up the Auto Industry Financing Program within the
tARP. this program extended $17.4 billion in funding to the two compa-
nies in late December 2008 and early January 2009. the program also
extended $7.5 billion in funding to the two auto finance companies around
the same time. Upon taking office, the Obama Administration required
the automakers to submit plans for restructuring and a return to viability
before additional funds were committed. to sustain the industry during
this planning process, the treasury established the Warranty Commitment Program to reassure consumers that warranties of the troubled firms would be honored. It also initiated the Auto Supplier Support Program to maintain stability in the auto supply base.
Over the spring of 2009, the Administration’s Auto task Force
worked with GM and Chrysler to produce plans for viability. In the case
of Chrysler, the task force determined that viability could be achieved by
merging with the Italian automaker Fiat. For GM, the task force determined that substantial reductions in costs were necessary and charged the company with producing a more aggressive restructuring plan. For both companies, a quick, targeted bankruptcy was judged to be the most efficient and successful way to restructure. Chrysler filed for bankruptcy on April 30, 2009; GM, on June 1. In addition to concessions by all stakeholders, including workers, retirees, creditors, and suppliers, the U.S. Government invested substantial funds to bring about the orderly restructuring. In all, more than $80 billion
of tARP funds had been authorized for the motor vehicle industry as of
September 20, 2009.
Fiscal Stimulus
the signature element of the Administration’s policy response to the crisis was the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA).
the President signed the Recovery Act in Denver on February 17, just
28 days after taking office. At an estimated cost of $787 billion, the Act is
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 51
the largest countercyclical fiscal action in American history. It provides tax cuts and increases in government spending equivalent to roughly 2 percent of GDP in 2009 and 2? percent of GDP in 2010. to put those figures in
perspective, the largest expansionary swing in the budget during Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal was an increase in the deficit of about 1? percent of
GDP in fiscal 1936. that expansion, however, was counteracted the very
next fiscal year by a contraction that was even larger.
the fiscal stimulus was designed to fill part of the shortfall in
aggregate demand caused by the collapse of private demand and the Federal
Reserve’s inability to lower short-term interest rates further. It was part
of a comprehensive package that included stabilizing the financial system, helping responsible homeowners avoid foreclosure, and aiding small busi- nesses through tax relief and increased lending. the President set as a goal for the fiscal stimulus that it raise employment by 3? million relative to what it otherwise would have been.
Several principles guided the design of the stimulus. One was that
it be spread over two years, reflecting the Administration’s view that the
economy would need substantial support for more than one year. At the same time, the Administration also strongly supported keeping the stimulus explicitly temporary. It was not to be an excuse to permanently expand the size of government.
A second key principle was that the stimulus be well diversified.
Different types of stimulus affect the economy in different ways. Individual tax cuts, for example, affect production and employment in a wide range of industries by encouraging households to spend more on consumer goods, while government investments in infrastructure directly increase construc- tion activity and employment. In addition, underlying economic conditions affect the efficacy of fiscal policy in ways that can be quantitatively important
and sometimes difficult to forecast. Likewise, different types of stimulus
affect the economy with different speeds. For instance, aid to individuals directly affected by the recession tends to be spent relatively quickly, while new investment projects require more time. Because of the need to provide broad support to the economy over an extended period, the Administration supported a stimulus plan that included a broad range of fiscal actions.
A third principle was that emergency spending should aim to address
long-term needs. Some spending, such as unemployment insurance, is
aimed at helping those directly affected by the recession maintain a decent
standard of living. But government investment spending should aim to
create enduring capital investments that increase productivity and growth.
the Recovery Act reflected those guiding principles. the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that almost one-quarter of the stimulus
52 | Chapter 2
would be spent by the end of the third quarter of 2009, and an additional half
would be spent over the next four quarters (Congressional Budget Office
2009b). So far, the pace of the spending and tax cuts has largely matched
CBO’s estimates.
the final package was very well diversified. Roughly one-third took the form of tax cuts. the most significant of these was the Making Work
Pay tax credit, which cut taxes for 95 percent of working families. taxes for a typical family were reduced by $800 per couple for each of 2009 and 2010.
Another provision of the bill provided roughly $14 billion for one-time
payments of $250 to seniors, veterans, and people with disabilities. the
macroeconomic effects of these payments are likely to be similar to those
of tax cuts.
Businesses received important tax cuts as well. the most important
of these was an extension of bonus depreciation, which reduced taxes on
new investments by allowing firms to immediately deduct half the cost of
property and equipment purchases. One advantage of such temporary
investment incentives is that they can affect the timing of investment,
moving some investment from future years when the economy does not
have a deficiency of aggregate demand to the present, when it does.
In addition, because the financial market disruptions had a
particularly paralyzing effect on the financial plans of small businesses,
the Act included additional measures targeted specifically at those busi-
nesses. tax cuts for small businesses included an expansion of provisions
allowing for the carryback of net operating losses, a temporary 75 percent
exclusion from capital gains taxes on small business stock, and the ability
to immediately expense up to $250,000 of qualified investment purchases.
In addition to reducing taxes, these provisions improve cash flow at firms
facing credit constraints and provide extra incentives for individuals to
invest in small businesses. the Act also included measures to help increase
small business lending through the SBA. In particular, it raised
to 90
percent the maximum guarantee on SBA general purpose and working
capital loans (the 7(a) program) and eliminated fees on both 7(a) loans
and loans for fixed-asset capital and real estate investment projects (the
504 program).
Another important part of the stimulus consisted of fiscal relief to state
governments. Because almost every state has a balanced-budget require-
ment, the declines in revenues caused by the recession forced states to cut spending or raise taxes, thereby further contracting demand and magnifying
the downturn. Federal fiscal relief can help prevent these contractionary
responses, helping to maintain critical state services and state employment, prevent tax increases on families already suffering from the recession, and
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 53
cushion the fall in demand. And because many states were already raising
taxes and cutting spending when the ARRA was passed, the effects were
likely to occur relatively quickly. the Act therefore included roughly $140 billion of state fiscal relief.
the Recovery Act also included approximately $90 billion of support for individuals directly affected by the recession. this support serves two
critical purposes. First, it provides relief from the recession’s devastating
impact on families and individuals. Second, because the recipients typically spend this support quickly, it provides an immediate boost to the broader
economy. Among the major components of this relief were an extension
and expansion of unemployment insurance benefits, subsidies to help the
unemployed continue to obtain health insurance, and additional funding
for the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program. the Act also reduced taxes on unemployment insurance benefits, the effect of which is similar to an expansion of benefits.
Finally, the Recovery Act included direct government investment
spending. Because government investment raises output in the short run both through its direct effects and by increasing the incomes and spending
of the workers employed on the projects, its output effects are particularly
large. In addition, because this type of stimulus is spent less quickly than
other types, it will play a vital role in providing support to the economy
after 2009. And by funding critical investments, this spending will raise the economy’s output even in the long run.
the Act included funding both for traditional government investment projects, such as transportation infrastructure and basic scientific research,
and for initial investments to jump-start private investment in emerging
new areas, such as health information technology, a smart electrical grid,
and clean energy technologies. the Act also included tax credits for specific types of private spending, such as home weatherization and advanced energy manufacturing, which are likely to have effects similar to direct government
investment spending. Altogether, roughly one-third of the budget impact
of the Recovery Act will take the form of these investments and tax credits. Fiscal stimulus actions did not end with the passage and implementa-
tion of the Recovery Act. In June 2009, the Administration worked with
Congress to set up the Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS). Commonly
known as the ―Cash for Clunkers‖ program, CARS gave rebates of up
to $4,500 to consumers who replaced older cars and trucks with newer,
more fuel-efficient models. the program was in effect for July and most
of August. After the program’s popularity led to quick exhaustion of the
original funding of $1 billion, the funding was increased to $3 billion to
allow more consumers to participate.
54 | Chapter 2
In November, the Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009 cut taxes for struggling businesses and strengthened the safety net for workers. In particular, the Act extended the net operating loss provisions of the Recovery Act that allowed small businesses to count their losses this
year against taxes paid in previous years for an additional year, and expanded the benefit to medium and large businesses. the Act also provided up to
20 additional weeks of unemployment insurance benefits for workers who
were reaching the end of their emergency unemployment benefits. In
December, an amendment to the Department of Defense Appropriations
Act of 2010 continued through the end of February 2010 the unemployment insurance provisions of the Recovery Act, the November extension of emer-
gency benefits, and the COBRA subsidy program that helps unemployed
workers maintain their health insurance. It also expanded the COBRA
premium subsidy period from 9 to 15 months and extended the increased
guarantees and fee waivers for SBA loans.
Housing Policy
the economic and financial crisis began in the housing market, and an important part of the policy response has been directed at that market.
the Administration initiated the Making Home Affordable program
(MHA) in March 2009. this program was designed to support low mort-
gage rates, keep millions of homeowners in their homes, and stabilize the
housing market.
As described earlier, the Federal Reserve undertook large-scale
purchases of GSe debt and mortgage-backed securities in an effort to reduce mortgage interest rates. At the same time, the treasury Department made an increased funding commitment to the GSes. this increased government support for the agencies also reduced their borrowing costs and so helped
lower mortgage interest rates.
Importantly, MHA also included a program to help households take advantage of lower interest rates. the Home Affordable Refinance
Program helps families whose homes have lost value and whose mortgage
payments can be reduced by refinancing at historically low interest rates.
this program expanded the opportunity to refinance to borrowers with
loans owned or guaranteed by the GSes who had a mortgage balance up to 125 percent of their home’s current value.
Another key component of MHA is the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), which is providing up to $75 billion to encourage loan
modifications. It offers incentives to investors, lenders, servicers, and
homeowners to encourage mortgage modifications in which all stakeholders share in the cost of ensuring that responsible homeowners can afford their
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 55
monthly mortgage payments. to protect taxpayers, HAMP focuses on
sound modifications. No payments are made by the government unless
the modification lasts for at least three months, and all the payments are
designed around the principle of ―pay for success.‖ All parties have aligned
incentives under the program to achieve successful modifications at an
affordable and sustainable level.
the Administration has supported additional programs to help the
housing sector. the Recovery Act included an $8,000 first-time homebuyer’s credit for home purchases made before December 1, 2009. As with tempo-
rary investment incentives, this credit can help the economy by changing
the timing of decisions, bringing buyers into the housing market who were not planning on becoming homeowners until after 2009 or were postponing
their purchases in light of the distress in the market. In November, this
credit was expanded and extended by the Workers, Homeownership, and
Business Assistance Act of 2009.
the Recovery Act also gave considerable resources to the Neighborhood Stabilization Program, a program administered by the Department of Housing and Urban Development to stabilize communities that have
suffered from foreclosures and abandoned homes. the Administration also
provided assistance to state and local housing finance agencies and their
efforts to aid distressed homeowners, stimulate first-time home buying, and
provide affordable rental homes. these agencies had faced a significant
liquidity crisis resulting from disruptions in financial markets.
The Effects of the Policies
the condition of the American economy has changed dramatically in the past year. At the beginning of 2009, financial markets were functioning poorly, house prices were plummeting, and output and employment were
in freefall. today, financial markets have stabilized and credit is starting to flow again, house prices have leveled off, output is growing, and the employ-
ment situation is stabilizing. Because of the depth of the economy’s fall, we are a long way from full recovery, and significant challenges remain. But the trajectory of the economy is vastly improved.
there is strong evidence that the policy response has been central
to this turnaround. the actions to stabilize credit markets have prevented further destructive failures of major financial institutions and helped main-
tain lending in key areas. the housing and mortgage policies have kept
hundreds of thousands of homeowners in their homes and brought mort-
gage rates to historic lows. the speed of the economy’s change in direction
has been remarkable and matches up well with the timing of the fiscal
56 | Chapter 2
stimulus. And both direct estimates as well as the assessments of expert
observers underscore the crucial role played by the stimulus.
The Financial Sector
Given the powerful impact of the financial sector on the real economy, a necessary first step to recovery of the real economy was recovery of the
financial sector. And the financial sector has unquestionably begun to
recover. Figure 2-5 extends the graph of the teD spread and the BAA-AAA
spread shown in Figure 2-3 through December 2009. After spiking to
unprecedented levels in October 2008, the teD spread fell rapidly over
the next two months but remained substantially elevated at the beginning of 2009. It then declined gradually through August and is now at normal levels. this key indicator of the basic functioning of credit markets suggests substantial financial recovery. the BAA-AAA spread remained very high through April but then fell rapidly from April to September. this spread, which normally rises when the economy is weak because of higher corpo- rate default risks, is now at levels comparable to those at the beginning of the recession and below its levels in much of 1990–91 and 2002–03. thus, the current level of the spread appears to reflect mainly the weak state of the economy rather than any specific difficulties in credit markets.
Figure 2-5
TED Spread and Moody’s BAA-AAA Spread Through December 2009
Percentage points
5
4
3
2
TED
BAA-AAA
1
Dec-2005 Nov-2006 Nov-2007 Nov-2008 Nov-2009
Notes: The TED spread is defined as the three-month London Interbank
Offer Rate
(LIBOR) less the yield on the three-month U.S. Treasury security. Moody’s BAA-AAA
spread is the difference between Moody's indexes of yields on AAA and
BAA rated
corporate bonds.
Source: Bloomberg.
Rescuing the economy from the Great
Recession | 57
Another broad indicator of the health of the financial system is the
level of stock prices, which depend both on investors’ expectations of future
earnings and on their willingness to bear risk. Figure 2-6 shows the behavior
of the S&P 500 stock price index since January 2006. this series declined by
18 percent from its peak in October 2007 through the end of August 2008,
fell precipitously in September, and continued to fall through March 2009
as the economy deteriorated sharply and investors became extremely fearful.
the stabilization of the economy and the restoration of more normal work-
ings of financial markets have led to a sharp turnaround in stock prices. As
of December 31, 2009, the S&P 500 was 65 percent above its low in March.
As with the BAA-AAA spread, the current level of stock prices relative
to their pre-recession level appears to reflect the weaker situation
of the
real economy rather than any specific problems with financial markets or
investors’ willingness to bear risk.
Figure 2-6
S&P 500 Stock Price Index
Index (1941-43 10)
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010
Source: Bloomberg.
these indicators show that financial markets have evolved
toward
normalcy, which was a necessary step in stopping the economic freefall. But
for the economy to recover fully, that is not enough: credit must be avail-
able to sound borrowers. On this front, the results are more mixed. Some
sources of credit are coming back strongly, but others remain weak.
As described in more detail later, one critical market where policies
have succeeded in lowering interest rates and maintaining credit
flows is
58 | Chapter 2
the mortgage market. Another market that has recovered substantially is
the market for commercial paper. In late 2008 and early 2009, this market
was functioning in large part because of the direct intervention of the
Federal Reserve. By mid-January, the Federal Reserve’s Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) was holding $350 billion of commercial paper. As
credit conditions have stabilized, however, firms have been able to place
their commercial paper privately on better terms than through the CPFF,
and levels of commercial paper outstanding have remained stable even
as the Federal Reserve has reduced its holdings to less than $15 billion.
Nonetheless, quantities of commercial paper outstanding remain well below their pre-crisis levels.
Another crucial source of credit that has stabilized is the market for
corporate bonds. As risk spreads have fallen, corporations have found it
easier to obtain funding by issuing longer-term bonds than by issuing such
instruments as commercial paper. As a result, corporate bond issuance, which fell sharply in the second half of 2008, is now running above pre-crisis levels. An important financial market development occurred in response to the stress test conducted in the spring. this comprehensive review of the
soundness of the Nation’s 19 largest financial institutions, together with the
public release of this information, strengthened private investors’ confi-
dence in the institutions. Partly as a result, the institutions were able to raise $55 billion in private common equity, improving their capital positions and their ability to lend.
the fact that financial institutions are increasingly able to raise private capital is reducing their need to rely on public capital. Only $7 billion of
tARP funds have been extended to banks since January 20, 2009. Many
financial institutions have repaid their tARP funds, and the expected cost
of the program to the government has been revised down by approximately $200 billion since August 2009.
Policy initiatives have also had a clear impact on small business
lending. Figure 2-7 shows the amount of SBA-guaranteed loans that have
been made since October 2006. SBA loan volume experienced its
first
significant decrease in September and October 2007; following the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, it fell by more than half. the recovery
in small business lending coincided with the passage of the Recovery Act
in February 2009. In the months between Lehman’s fall and passage of
the Recovery Act, average monthly loan volume was $830 million; imme-
diately after passage, loan volume began to steadily recover and averaged
$1.3 billion per month through September 2009. In September, loan
volume reached $1.9 billion, which was the highest level since August 2007; this has since been exceeded by November 2009’s monthly loan volume of
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 59
Figure 2-7
Monthly Gross SBA 7(a) and 504 Loan Approvals
Millions of dollars
2,500
Before ARRA After ARRA
2,000
3/09-12/09 average
$1,380 million
1,500
1,000
10/08-2/09 average
500 $830 million
Oct-2006 Apr-2007 Oct-2007 Apr-2008 Oct-2008 Apr-2009 Oct-2009
Source: Unpublished monthly data provided by the Small Business Administration.
$2.2 billion. In total, between February and December 2009 the SBA
guaranteed nearly $15 billion in small business lending.
Nonetheless, overall credit conditions have not returned to normal.
Many small business owners report continued difficulties in obtaining credit. In addition, the severity of the downturn is leading to elevated rates of failure of small banks, potentially disrupting their lending to small busi-
nesses and households. the market for asset-backed securities is also far
from fully recovered. As a result, it is often hard for banks and other lenders to package and sell their loans, which forces them to hold a greater fraction of the loans they originate and thus limits their ability to lend.
One important source of data on credit availability is the Federal
Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices.
the survey, conducted every three months, examines whether banks
are tightening lending standards, loosening them, or keeping them basi-
cally unchanged. the October 2008 survey found that the overwhelming
majority of banks were tightening standards. this fraction has declined
steadily, and by October 2009 less than 20 percent were reporting that they were tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans, though none reported loosening standards. thus, credit conditions remain tight.
Housing
As described earlier, policymakers have taken unprecedented actions to maintain mortgage lending. One result has been a major shift in the
60 | Chapter 2
composition of mortgage finance. In 2006, private institutions provided
60 percent of liquidity while the GSes, the Federal Housing Agency (FHA), and the Veterans Administration (VA) provided the remaining 40 percent.
As home prices began to decline nationally in 2007, private
financing for
mortgages began to dry up. As of November 2009, the mortgages guar-
anteed by the GSes, FHA, and the VA accounted for nearly all mortgage
originations. About 22 percent of mortgage originations are guaranteed
by FHA or VA, up from less than 3 percent in 2006. About 75 percent
of mortgage originations are guaranteed by the GSes, up from less than
40 percent in 2006.
As Figure 2-8 shows, mortgage rates fell to historic lows in 2009—
consistent with the government’s increased funding commitment to Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac and the Federal Reserve’s purchases of mortgage-
backed securities. these low mortgage rates support home prices and thus
benefit all homeowners. More directly, households that have refinanced
their mortgages at the lower rates have obtained considerable savings. these
savings have effects similar to tax cuts, improving households’ financial
positions and encouraging spending on other goods. With the help of the
Home Affordable Refinance Program, approximately 3 million borrowers
have refinanced, putting more than $6 billion of purchasing power at an
annual rate into the hands of households.
Figure 2-8
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rate
Percent
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Apr-1971 Apr-1977 Apr-1983 Mar-1989 Mar-1995 Mar-2001 Mar-2007
Note: Contract interest rate for first mortgages.
Source: Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 61
In addition, the Home Affordable Modification Program has been
successful in encouraging mortgage modifications. When the program was launched, the Administration estimated that it could offer help to as many
as 3 million to 4 million borrowers through the end of 2012. On October
8, 2009, the Administration announced that servicers had begun more than
500,000 trial modifications, nearly a month ahead of the original goal. As
of November, the monthly pace of trial modifications exceeded the monthly
pace of completed foreclosures. Of course, not all trial modifications will
become permanent, but the Administration is making every effort to ensure
that as many sound modifications as possible do.
One important result of the policies aimed at the housing market
and of the broader policies to support the economy is that the housing
market appears to have stabilized. National home price indexes have
been relatively steady for the past several months, as shown in Figure 2-9.
the Federal Housing Finance Agency purchase-only house price index, which is constructed using only conforming mortgages (that is, mortgages
eligible for purchase by the GSes), has changed little since late 2008. the
LoanPerformance house price index, another closely watched measure that
uses conforming and nonconforming mortgages with coverage of repeat
sales transactions for more than 85 percent of the population, rose 6 percent between March and August 2009 before declining slightly in recent months. In addition, the pace of sales of existing single-family homes has increased
substantially. Sales in the fourth quarter of 2009 were 29 percent above
their low in the first quarter of 2009 and comparable to levels in the first half of 2007.
Finally, there are signs of renewed building activity. After falling
81 percent from their peak in September 2005 to their low in January 2009,
single-family housing permits (a leading indicator of housing construc- tion) rose 49 percent through December 2009. Similarly, after falling for
14 consecutive quarters, the residential investment component of real GDP rose in the third and fourth quarters of 2009.
Inventories of vacant homes for sale remain at high levels, and many
vacant homes are being held off the market and will likely be put up for
sale as home prices increase. this overhang may lead to some additional price declines, although prices are unlikely to fall at the same rate as they did during the crisis. thus, the recovery of the housing sector is likely to be slow. Of course, we should neither expect nor want the housing market to return to its pre-crisis condition. In the long run, as discussed in more detail in Chapter 4, neither the extraordinarily high levels of housing construction and price appreciation before the crisis nor the extraordinarily low levels of construction and the rapid price declines during the crisis are sustainable.
62 | Chapter 2
Figure 2-9
FHFA and LoanPerformance National House Price Indexes
Index (Jan. 2006=100), seasonally adjusted
110
105
100
FHFA
95
90
85
80
LoanPerformance
75
70
65
60
Jan-2006 Jul-2006 Jan-2007 Jul-2007 Jan-2008 Jul-2008 Jan-2009 Jul-2009
Sources: Federal Housing Finance Agency, purchase-only index; First American Core Logic
LoanPerformance.
Overall Economic Activity
the direction of overall economic activity changed dramatically over the course of 2009. Figure 2-10 shows the quarterly growth rate of real GDP,
the broadest indicator of national production. After falling at an annual
rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter, real GDP declined at a rate of just 0.7 percent in the second quarter. It then grew at a 2.2 percent rate in the third quarter and a 5.7 percent rate in the fourth. Such a rapid turnaround
in growth is remarkable. the improvement in growth of 8.6 percentage
points from the first quarter to the third quarter (that is, the swing from
growth at a -6.4 percent rate to growth at a 2.2 percent rate) was the largest since 1983. Similarly, the three-quarter improvement from the first quarter to the fourth of 12.1 percentage points was the largest since 1981, and the second largest since 1958.
One limitation of these simple statistics is that they do not account
for the usual dynamics of the economy. A more sophisticated way to gauge the extent of the change in the economy’s direction is to compare the path the economy has followed with the predictions of a statistical model. there are many ways to construct a baseline statistical forecast. the particular one used here is a vector autoregression (or VAR) that includes the logarithms of real GDP (in billions of chained 2005 dollars) and payroll employment (in
thousands, in the final month of the quarter), using four lags of each variable
Rescuing the economy from the Great
Recession | 63
Figure 2-10
Real GDP Growth
Percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate
8
5.7
6
4
2.2
2
-0.7
-2
-4
-6
-5.4
-6.4
-8
2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis),
National Income and
Product Accounts Table 1.1.1, line 1.
and estimated over the period 1990:Q1–2007:Q4. Because the sample period
ends in the fourth quarter of 2007, the coefficient estimates used to construct
the forecast are not influenced by the current recession. Rather, they show
the normal joint short-run dynamics of real GDP and employment over an
extended period. GDP and employment are then forecast for the final three
quarters of 2009 using the estimated VAR and actual data through the first
quarter of the year. the resulting comparison of the actual and projected
paths of the economy shows the differences between the economy’s actual
performance and what one would have expected given the situation as of
the first quarter and the economy’s usual dynamics.1 Although the results
presented here are based on one specific approach to constructing the
baseline projection, other reasonable approaches have similar implications.
this more sophisticated exercise also finds that the economy’s
turnaround has been impressive. the statistical forecast based on the econ-
omy’s normal dynamics projects growth at a -3.3 percent rate in the second
quarter of 2009, -0.5 percent in the third, and 1.3 percent in the fourth. In
all three quarters, actual growth was substantially higher than the projection.
Figure 2-11 shows that as a result, the level of GDP exceeded the projected
level by an increasing margin: 0.7 percent in the second quarter, 1.4 percent
in the third quarter, and 2.5 percent in the fourth.
1 For more details on this approach and the model-based approach discussed later, see
Council
of economic Advisers (2010).
64 | Chapter 2
Figure 2-11
Real GDP: Actual and Statistical Baseline
Projection
Billions of 2005 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate
13,500
Actual
Projected
13,250
13,000
12,750
12,500
2008:Q1 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), National Income and
Product Accounts Table 1.1.6, line 1; CEA calculations. See Council of Economic
Advisers (2010).
the gap between the actual and projected paths of GDP provides a
rough way to estimate the effect of economic policy. the most obvious
sources of the differences are the unprecedented policy actions. However,
the gap reflects all unusual influences on GDP. For example, the rescue
actions taken in other countries (described in Chapter 3) could have played a role in better American performance. At the same time, the continuing
stringency in credit markets is likely lowering output relative to its usual
cyclical patterns. thus, while some factors work in the direction of causing
the comparison of the economy’s actual performance with its normal behavior to overstate the contribution of economic policy actions, others
work in the opposite direction.
One way to estimate the specific impact of the Recovery Act is to
use estimates from economic models. Mainstream estimates of economic multipliers for the effects of fiscal policy can be combined with figures on the stimulus to date to estimate how much the stimulus has contributed to
growth. (For the financial and housing policies, this approach is not feasible, because the policies are so unprecedented that no estimates of their effects are readily available.) When this exercise is performed using the multipliers employed by the Council of economic Advisers (CeA), which are based on mainstream economic models, the results suggest a critical role for the fiscal stimulus. they suggest that the Recovery Act contributed approximately 2.8
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 65
percentage points to growth in the second quarter, 3.9 percentage points in the third, and 1.8 percentage points in the fourth. As a result, this approach
suggests that the level of GDP in the fourth quarter was slightly more than
2 percent higher than it would have been in the absence of the stimulus.
Knowledgeable outside observers agree that the Recovery Act has
increased output substantially relative to what it otherwise would have been.
For example, in November 2009, CBO estimated that the Act had raised the
level of output in the third quarter by between 1.2 and 3.2 percent relative to
the no-stimulus baseline (Congressional Budget Office 2009a). Private fore-
casters also generally estimate that the Act has raised output substantially.
A final way to look for the effects of the rescue policies on GDP is in
the behavior of the components of GDP. Figure 2-12 shows the contribu-
tion of various components of GDP to overall GDP growth in each of the
four quarters of 2009. One area where policy’s role seems clear is in business
investment in equipment and software. A key source of the turnaround in
GDP is the change in this type of investment from a devastating 36 percent
annual rate of decline in the first quarter to a 13 percent rate of increase by
the fourth quarter. two likely contributors to this change were the invest-
ment incentives in the Recovery Act and the many measures to stabilize the
financial system and maintain lending. Similarly, the housing and financial
Figure 2-12
Contributions to Real GDP Growth
Percentage points
6
5 PCE Nonres. Equip. I Res. Inventory Fed. S&L Net
Struct. Fixed I I Gov’t Gov’t Exports
4
3
2
1
-1 2009:Q1
2009:Q2
-2
2009:Q3
-3
2009:Q4
-4
Notes: Bars sum to quarterly change in GDP growth (-6.4% in Q1; -0.7%
in Q2; 2.2% in
Q3; 5.7% in Q4). PCE is personal consumption expenditures; Nonres.
Struct. is nonresiden-
tial fixed investment in structures; Equip I. is nonresidential fixed investment
in equipment
and software; Res. Fixed I is residential fixed investment; Inventory I is
inventory
investment; Federal Gov’t is Federal Government purchases; S&L Gov’t is
state and local
government purchases; Net Exports is net exports.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis),
National Income and
Product Accounts Table 1.1.2.
66 | Chapter 2
market policies were surely important to the swing in the growth of residen-
tial investment from a 38 percent annual rate of decline in the first quarter
to increases in the third and fourth quarters.
two other components showing evidence of the policies’ effects
are personal consumption expenditures and state and local government purchases. the Making Work Pay tax credit and the aid to individuals
directly affected by the recession meant that households did not have to cut
their consumption spending as much as they otherwise would have, and
the Cash for Clunkers program provided important incentives for motor
vehicle purchases in the third quarter. Consumption was little changed in
the first two quarters of 2009 and then rose at a healthy 2.8 percent annual
rate in the third quarter—driven in considerable part by a 44 percent rate of
increase in purchases of motor vehicles and parts—and at a 2.0 percent rate
in the fourth quarter. And, despite the dire budgetary situations of state and
local governments, their purchases rose at the fastest pace in more than five
years in the second quarter and were basically stable in the third and fourth quarters. this stability almost surely could not have occurred in the absence of the fiscal relief to the states.
the figure also shows the large role of inventory investment in
magnifying macroeconomic fluctuations. When the economy goes into
a recession, firms want to cut their inventories. As a result, inventory
investment moves from its usual slightly positive level to sharply negative, contributing to the fall in output. then, as firms moderate their inventory
reductions, inventory investment rises—that is, becomes less negative— contributing to the recovery of output.
Finally, the turnaround in the automobile industry has been
substantial. the Cash for Clunkers program appears to have generated
a sharp increase in demand for automobiles in July and August 2009
(Council of economic Advisers 2009). Sales of light motor vehicles averaged 12.6 million units at an annual rate during these two months, up from
an annual rate of 9.6 million units in the second quarter. Although some
observers had hypothesized that the July and August sales boost would be
offset by a corresponding loss of sales in the months immediately following,
sales in September (9.2 million at an annual rate) roughly matched the
pace of sales in the first half of 2009, and sales subsequently rebounded to a 10.8 million unit annual pace in the fourth quarter. employment in motor
vehicles and parts hit a low of 633,300 in June 2009 and has increased
modestly since then. In December 2009, employment was 655,200.
Both GM and Chrysler proceeded through bankruptcy in an efficient
manner, and the new companies emerged far more quickly than outside
experts thought would be possible. the companies are performing in line
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 67
with their restructuring plans, and in November 2009, GM announced its
intention to begin repaying the Federal Government earlier than originally expected. It made a first payment of $1 billion in December.
The Labor Market
the ultimate goal of the economic stabilization and
recovery
policies is to provide a job for every American who seeks one. the recession’s
impact on the labor market has been severe: employment in December 2009
was 7.2 million below its peak level two years earlier, and the
unemploy-
ment rate was 10 percent. Moreover, although real GDP has begun to grow,
employment losses are continuing.
Nonetheless, there is clear evidence that the labor
market is
stabilizing. Figure 2-13 shows the average monthly job loss by quarter since
2006. Average monthly job losses have moderated steadily, from a devas-
tating 691,000 in the first quarter of 2009 to 428,000 in the second quarter,
199,000 in the third, and 69,000 in the fourth. the change in the average
monthly change in employment from the first quarter to the third was the
largest over any two-quarter period since 1980, and the change
from the
first to the fourth quarter was the largest three-quarter change since 1946.
Given what we now know about the terrible rate of job loss over the winter, it
would have been very difficult for the labor market to stabilize more rapidly
than it has.
Figure 2-13
Average Monthly Change in Employment
Thousands, seasonally adjusted
400
200
-69
-200
-199
-400
-428
-600
-553
-691
-800
2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics), Current
Employment Statistics
survey Series CES0000000001.
68 | Chapter 2
One can again use the VAR described earlier to obtain a
more
refined estimate of how the behavior of employment has differed from its
usual pattern. this statistical procedure implies that given the economy’s
behavior through the first quarter of 2009 and its usual dynamics, one would
have expected job losses of about 597,000 per month in the second quarter,
513,000 in the third quarter, and 379,000 in the fourth. thus, actual employ-
ment as of the middle of the second quarter (May) was
approximately
300,000 higher than one would have projected given the normal behavior
of the economy; as of the middle of the third quarter (August), it was about
1.1 million higher; and as of the middle of the fourth quarter (November), it
was about 2.1 million higher. As with the behavior of GDP, the portion of this
difference that is attributable to the Recovery Act and other policies cannot
be isolated from the portion resulting from other factors. But
again, the
difference could either understate or overstate the policies’ contributions.
As with GDP, economic models can be used to focus specifically on
the contributions of the Recovery Act. the results are shown in
Figure
2-14. the CeA’s multiplier estimates suggest that the Act raised employ-
ment relative to what it otherwise would have been by about 400,000 in the
second quarter of 2009, 1.1 million in the third quarter, and 1.8 million in
the fourth quarter. Again, these estimates are similar to other assessments.
For example, CBO’s November report estimated that the Act had
raised
Figure 2-14
Estimated Effect of the Recovery Act on
Employment
Thousands
2,100
1,772
1,800
1,500
1,200 1,111
900
600
385
300
2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4
Note: The figure shows the estimated impact on employment relative to
what otherwise
would have happened.
Source: CEA calculations. See Council of Economic Advisers (2010).
Rescuing the economy from the
Great Recession | 69
employment in the third quarter by between 0.6 million and 1.6
million,
relative to what otherwise would have happened.
A more complete picture of the process of labor market healing can
be obtained by looking at labor market indicators beyond
employment.
table 2-1 shows some of the main margins along which labor
market
recovery occurs. the margins are listed from left to right in the
rough
order in which they tend to adjust coming out of a recession.
One of
the first margins to respond is productivity—when demand begins to
recover or moderates relative to the previous rate of decline, firms initially
produce more with the same number of workers. Another early margin is
initial claims for unemployment insurance—fewer workers are laid off. A
somewhat later margin is the average workweek—firms start
increasing
production by increasing hours. the usual next step is temporary
help
employment—when firms decide to hire, they often begin with temporary
help. eventually total employment responds. the unemployment rate
usually lags employment slightly because employment growth brings some
discouraged workers back into the labor force and because the labor force
naturally grows over time. the last item to adjust is usually the duration of
unemployment spells, as workers who have been unemployed for extended
periods finally find jobs.
the table shows that recovery from this recession is
following the
typical pattern, with labor market repair evident along the margins
that
typically respond early in a recovery. Productivity growth has
surged
as GDP has begun to increase and employment has continued to
fall.
table 2-1
Cyclically Sensitive elements of Labor Market Adjustment
First to move Last to move
Average
monthly change
Produc-
tempo-
tivity Initial UI total Average
growth, claims Work- rary help
employ- Un- duration
annual (thou- week employ- ment employ- of unem-
ment ment rate
rate sands/ (hours) (thou- ployment
(percent) week) (thou-
sands) (percent) (weeks)
sands)
2008:Q4 0.8 22 -0.10 -70 -553 0.39 0.3
2009:Q1 0.3 40 -0.07 -73 -691 0.42 0.4
2009:Q2 6.9 -15 -0.03 -28 -428 0.29 1.2
2009:Q3 8.1p -22 0.03 5 -199 0.11 0.7
2009:Q4 7.5e -30 0.03 49 -69 0.04 0.9
Notes: this table arranges the indicators according to the order in which they
typically first move
around business cycle turning points. Quarterly values for the average
monthly change are measured
from the last month in the previous quarter to the last month in the quarter. p is
preliminary; e is
estimate.
Sources: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics), Series
PRS85006092, and employment
Situation tables A, A-9, and B-1; Department of Labor (employment and
training Administration).
70 | Chapter 2
Initial unemployment insurance claims, which rose precipitously earlier
in the recession, have begun to decline at an increasing rate. Likewise, the
workweek has gone from shortening to lengthening, albeit slowly. temporary
help employment has changed from extreme declines to substantial increases.
So far, total employment has shown a greatly moderating decline but has not
yet risen. the pace of increase in the unemployment rate has slowed notice-
ably, but the unemployment rate has not yet fallen on a quarterly
basis.
Finally, increases in the duration of unemployment have not yet begun to
moderate noticeably.
these data suggest that the labor market is beginning to
move in
the right direction, but much work remains to be done. the
country is
not yet seeing the substantial rises in total employment and declines in the
unemployment rate that are the ultimate hallmark of robust labor market
improvement. And, of course, even once all the indicators are
moving
solidly in the right direction, the labor market will still have a long way to go before it is fully recovered.
Signs of healing are also beginning to appear in the industrial
composition of the stabilization of the labor market. Figure 2-15 shows the
average monthly change in each of eight sectors in each of the four quarters
of 2009. As one would expect of the beginnings of a recovery from a severe
Figure 2-15
Contributions to the Change in Employment
Thousands, average monthly change from end of quarter to end of quarter 160
110
Con- Mfg. Trade Prof. & Edu. & Federal S&L Other
struct. Bus. Serv. Health Gov’t Gov’t
60
10
-40
-90
2009:Q1
-140 2009:Q2
2009:Q3
-190
2009:Q4
-240
Notes: Bars sum to average monthly change in quarter (-691,000 in Q1; -428,000 in Q2;
-199,000 in Q3; -69,000 in Q4). Construct. is construction; Mfg. is
manufacturing; Trade is
wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and utilities; Prof. & Bus. Serv. is professional and
business services; Edu. & Health is education and health; Federal Gov’t is Federal
Government; S&L Gov’t is state and local government.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics), Employment Situation Table B-1.
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 71
recession, the moderation in job losses has been particularly pronounced in manufacturing and construction, two of the most cyclically sensitive sectors.
there has also been a sharp turnaround in professional business services,
driven largely by renewed employment growth in temporary help services.
One area where the Recovery Act appears to have had a direct impact
on employment is in state and local government. Despite the enormous
harm the recession has done to their budgets, employment in state and
local governments has fallen relatively little. Indeed, employment in
state and local government, particularly in public education, rose in the
fourth quarter.
The Challenges Ahead
the financial and economic rescue policies have helped avert an
economic calamity and brought about a sharp change in the economy’s
direction. Output has begun growing again, and employment appears poised to do so as well. But even when the country has returned to a path of steadily growing output and employment, the economy will be far from
fully recovered. Since the recession began in December 2007, 7.2 million
jobs have been lost. It will take many months of robust job creation to erase that employment deficit. For this reason, it is important to explore policies to speed recovery and spur job creation.
Deteriorating Forecasts
this jobs deficit is much larger than the vast majority of observers
anticipated at the end of 2008. this is not the result of a slow economic turn-
around. On the contrary, as described above, the change in the economy’s
direction has been remarkably rapid given the economy’s condition in the
first quarter of 2009. Rather, the jobs deficit reflects two developments.
the first development is the unanticipated severity of the downturn in
the real economy in 2008 and early 2009. table 2-2 shows consensus fore-
casts from November 2008 through February 2009, along with preliminary
and actual estimates of real GDP growth. the table shows that the magni-
tude of the fall in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter
of 2009—driven in part by the unexpectedly strong spread of the crisis to
the rest of the world—surprised most observers. the Blue Chip Consensus
released in mid-December 2008 projected fourth quarter growth would be
-4.1 percent and first quarter growth would be -2.4 percent. the actual
values turned out to be -5.4 percent and -6.4 percent. the Blue Chip forecast
released in mid-January also projected a substantially smaller decline in first
quarter real GDP than actually occurred.
72 | Chapter 2
table 2-2
Forecast and Actual Macroeconomic Outcomes
Real GDP Growth
2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4
Blue Chip (11/10/08) -2.8 -1.5 0.2 1.5 2.1
SPF (11/17/08) -2.9 -1.1 0.8 0.9 2.3
Blue Chip (12/10/08) -4.1 -2.4 -0.4 1.2 1.9
Blue Chip (1/10/09) -5.2 -3.3 -0.8 1.2 2.2
SPF (2/13/09) -- -5.2 -1.8 1.0 1.8
BeA Advance estimate -3.8 -6.1 -1.0 3.5 5.7
BeA Preliminary (2nd) estimate -6.2 -5.7 -1.0 2.8 --
actual -5.4 -6.4
-0.7 2.2 --
Unemployment Rate
2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4
Blue Chip (11/10/08) 6.5 6.9
7.3 7.6 7.7
SPF (11/17/08) 6.6 7.0
7.4 7.6 7.7
Blue Chip (12/10/08) 6.7 7.3
7.7 8.0 8.1
Blue Chip (1/10/09) 6.9 7.4
7.9 8.3 8.4
SPF (2/13/09) -- 7.8
8.3 8.7 8.9
actual 6.9 8.2
9.3 9.7 10.0
Notes: In the GDP panel, all numbers are in percent and are seasonally adjusted annual rates. In
the unemployment panel, all numbers are in percent and are seasonally adjusted. SPF is the Survey
of Professional Forecasters. Dashes indicate data are not available.
Sources: Blue Chip economic Indicators; Survey of Professional Forecasters; Department of
Commerce (Bureau of economic Analysis), GDP news releases on 1/30/2009, 2/27/2009, 4/29/2009,
5/29/2009, 7/31/2009, 8/27/2009, 10/29/2009, 11/24/2009, 1/29/2010, and National Income and
Product Accounts table 1.1.1, line 1; Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics), Current
Population Survey Series LNS14000000.
Part of the difficulty in forecasting resulted from large data revisions.
the official GDP figures available at the end of January 2009 indicated that
real GDP had fallen by just 0.2 percent over the four quarters of 2008; revised
data now put the decline at 1.9 percent.
the Administration’s economic forecast made in January 2009 and
released with the fiscal 2010 budget, like the private forecasts, underesti-
mated the speed of GDP decline in the first quarter. It also underestimated
average growth over the remaining three quarters of 2009. For
the four
quarters of 2009, the Administration forecast overall growth of 0.3 percent; the actual value, according to the latest available data, is 0.1 percent.
the second development accounting for the unexpectedly large
jobs deficit involves the behavior of the labor market given the behavior
of GDP. table 2-2 also shows consensus forecasts for the unemployment rate. these data indicate that as of December 2008, unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2009 was forecast to be 8.1 percent, dramatically less than the actual value of 10.0 percent. As of mid-January 2009, unemployment was forecast to be 8.4 percent in the fourth quarter. In its forecast made in
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 73
January 2009, the Administration unemployment forecast was similar to the consensus forecast.
Some of the unanticipated rise in unemployment was the result of the worse-than-expected GDP growth in 2008 and the beginning of 2009. CeA analysis, however, also suggests that the normal relationship between GDP and unemployment has fit poorly in the current recession. this relation-
ship, termed Okun’s law after former CeA Chair Arthur Okun who first
identified it, suggests that a fall in GDP of 1 percent relative to its normal
trend path is associated with a rise in the unemployment rate of about
0.5 percentage point after four quarters. Figure 2-16 shows the scatter plot of the four-quarter change in real GDP and the four-quarter change in the
unemployment rate. the figure shows that although the fit of Okun’s law
is usually good, the relationship has broken down somewhat during this
recession. the error was concentrated in 2009, when the unemployment
rate increased considerably faster than might have been expected given the change in real GDP. CeA calculations suggest that as of the fourth quarter
of 2009, the unemployment rate was approximately 1.7 percentage points
higher than would have been expected given the behavior of real GDP since the business cycle peak in the fourth quarter of 2007.
this unusual rise in the unemployment rate does not appear to
result from unusual behavior of the labor force. If anything, the labor force
Figure 2-16
Okun’s Law, 2000-2009
Percentage points
4
?u 0.49 * (2.64 - %?GDP)
e 2009 (0.09) (0.30)
t 3
a
r
t
2000-2008.
n
e
m
y
o
l
p 2
m
e
n
u
n
i
e
g 1
n
a
h
c
4
2007
Q
o
2003
t
4 2008 2001 Estimated 2002 0
2000
Q
2006
2005 2004
-1
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Real Output Growth (Q4 to Q4, percent)
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis),
National Income
and Product Accounts Table 1.1.1, line 1; Department of Labor (Bureau
of Labor
Statistics), Current Population Survey Series LNS11000000 and
LNS113000000; CEA
calculations.
74 | Chapter 2
appears to have contracted somewhat more than usual given the path of the
economy. Rather it reflects larger-than-typical falls in employment relative
to the decline in GDP. this behavior is consistent with the
tremendous
increase in productivity during this episode, especially over the final three
quarters of 2009. Indeed, labor productivity rose at a 6.9 percent
annual
rate in the second quarter and at an 8.1 percent rate in the
third quarter;
if productivity rose by a similar amount in the fourth quarter, as
seems
likely, the increase will have been one of the fastest over three quarters in
postwar history.
The Administration Forecast
Looking forward, the Administration projects steady but
moderate
GDP growth over the near and medium term. table 2-3 reports the
Administration’s forecast used in preparing the President’s fiscal year 2011
budget. the table shows that GDP growth in 2010 is forecast to be 3 percent.
table 2-3
Administration economic Forecast
Nonfarm
payroll
Interest Interest employ-
Un-
Real rate, rate, ment
employ-
Nominal 91-day 10-year (average
GDP treasury treasury monthly
type) bills notes change,
(percent) (percent) Q4 to Q4,
thou-
sands)
Percent Level, calendar year
2008 (actual) 0.1 -1.9 1.4 3.7 -189
2009 0.4 -0.5 0.2 3.3 -419
2010 4.0 3.0 0.4 3.9 95
2011 5.7 4.3 1.6 4.5 190
2012 6.1 4.3 GDP price index (chain- type) change, 1.9 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.7 price index (CPI-U) Q4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.7 2.0 Con- sumer GDP ment (chain- rate
(percent)
to Q4 5.8 9.3 10.0 9.2 8.2
3.0 5.0 251
2013 6.0 4.2 1.7 2.0 7.3 4.0 5.3 274
2014 5.7 3.9 1.7 2.0 6.5
4.1 5.3 267
2015 5.2 3.4 1.7 2.0 5.9
4.1 5.3 222
2016 5.0 3.1 1.8 2.1 5.5
4.1 5.3 181
2017 4.5 2.7 1.8 2.1 5.3
4.1 5.3 139
2018 4.5 2.6 1.8 2.1 5.2
4.1 5.3 113
2019 4.4 2.5 1.8 2.1 5.2
4.1 5.3 98
2020 4.3 2.5 1.8 2.1 5.2
4.1 5.3 93
Notes: Based on data available as of November 18, 2009. Interest rate on 91-day treasury bills
is measured on a secondary market discount basis. the figures do not reflect the upcoming BLS
benchmark revision, which is expected to reduce 2008 and 2009 job growth by a cumulative
824,000 jobs.
Sources: CeA calculations; Department of Commerce (Bureau of economic Analysis and
economics and Statistics Administration); Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics);
Department of the treasury; Office of Management and Budget.
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 75
the Administration estimates that normal or potential GDP growth will be
roughly 2? percent per year (see Box 2-1). Because projected GDP growth
is only slightly stronger than potential growth, relatively little decline is
projected in the unemployment rate during 2010. Indeed, it is possible that
the rate will rise for a while as some discouraged workers return to the labor
force, before starting to generally decline. Consistent with this, employment
growth is projected to be roughly equal to normal trend growth of about
100,000 per month.
box 2-1: potential real gdp growth
The Administration forecast is based on the idea that
real GDP
fluctuates around a potential level that trends upward at a relatively steady
rate. Over the budget window, potential real GDP is projected to grow at
a 2.5 percent annual rate. Potential real GDP growth is a measure of the
sustainable rate of growth of productive capacity.
The growth rate of the economy over the long run is
determined
by its supply side components, which include population, labor
force
participation, the ratio of nonfarm business employment to
household
employment, the length of the workweek, and labor productivity.
The
Administration’s forecast for the contribution of the growth rates
of
these supply side factors to potential real GDP growth is
shown in the
accompanying table.
Components of Potential Real GDP Growth, 2009-2020
Contribution
Component
(Percentage points)
Civilian noninstitutional population aged 16+ 1.0
Labor force participation rate -0.3
employment rate 0.0
Ratio of nonfarm business employment to -0.0
household employment
Average weekly hours (nonfarm business) -0.1
Output per hour (productivity, nonfarm business)
2.3
Ratio of real GDP to nonfarm business output -0.4
SUM: Real GDP
2.5
Note: All contributions are in percentage points at an annual rate.
Sources: CEA calculations; Department of the Treasury; Office of
Management and Budget.
Over the next 11 years, the working-age population is
projected
to grow 1.0 percent per year, the rate projected by the
Census Bureau.
Continued.on.next.page
76 | Chapter 2
Box.2-1,.continued
The normal or potential labor force participation rate, which fell
at a
0.3 percent annual rate during the past 8 years, is expected to
continue
declining at that pace. The continued projected decline results from the
aging baby boom generation entering their retirement years. The potential
employment rate (that is, 1 minus the normal or potential
unemploy-
ment rate) is not expected to contribute to potential GDP growth because
no change is anticipated in the unemployment rate
consistent with
stable inflation. The potential ratio of nonfarm business
employment
to household employment is also expected to be flat during the
forecast
horizon—consistent with its average behavior in the long run. This would
be a change, however, from its puzzling 0.5 percent annual rate of decline
during the past business cycle. The potential workweek is
projected to
edge down slightly (0.1 percent per year). This is a slightly shallower pace of decline than over the past 50 years, when it declined 0.3 percent per
year. Over the 11-year projection interval, some firming of the workweek would be a natural labor market accommodation to the anticipated decline in labor force participation.
Potential growth of labor productivity is projected at 2.3 percent per year, a conservative forecast relative to its measured product-side growth rate (2.8 percent) between the past two business cycle peaks, but close to an alternative income-side measure of productivity growth (2.2 percent) during the same period. The ratio of real GDP to nonfarm business output is expected to continue to subtract from overall growth as it has over most long periods, because the nonfarm business sector generally grows faster than other sectors, such as government, households, and nonprofit insti- tutions. Together, the sum of all of the components is the growth rate of potential real GDP, which is 2.5 percent per year.
As Table 2-3 shows, actual real GDP is projected to grow more
rapidly than potential real GDP over most of the forecast horizon. The
most important reason for the difference is that the actual employ-
ment rate is projected to rise as millions of workers who are currently
unemployed return to employment and so contribute to GDP growth.
traditionally, the large amount of slack would be expected to put
substantial downward pressure on wage and price inflation. For this reason, inflation is projected to remain low in 2010. However, because inflationary expectations remain well anchored, inflation is not likely to slow dramati-
cally or become negative (that is, turn into deflation).
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 77
In 2011, slightly higher GDP growth of approximately 4 percent
is projected (again measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter).
Consistent with this, stronger employment growth and a more substantial
decline in the unemployment rate are expected in 2011. However, because
GDP growth is still not projected to be as robust as that following some
other deep recessions, continued large output gaps are anticipated. this will
limit the upward movement of the inflation rate toward a pace consistent
with the Federal Reserve’s long-term target inflation rate of about 2 percent. Moreover, employment growth is unlikely to be large enough to reduce the employment shortfall dramatically in 2011.
Responsible Policies to Spur Job Creation
this large employment gap and the prospects that it is likely to recede only slowly make a compelling case for additional measures to spur private
sector job creation. the Administration is therefore exploring a range of
possibilities and working with Congress to pass measures into law.
Several principles are guiding this process. First, at a time when
the budget deficit is large and the country faces significant long-run fiscal
challenges, measures must be cost-effective. Second, given that the employ- ment consequences of the recession have been severe, measures must focus particularly on job creation. And third, measures must be tailored to the
state of the economy: the policies that are appropriate when an economy is contracting rapidly may not be the same as those that are appropriate for an economy that is growing again but operating below capacity.
Guided by these principles, the Administration has identified three key priorities. One is a multifaceted program to jump-start job creation by small businesses, which are critical to growth and have been particularly harmed
by the recession. Among the possible policies in this area are investment
incentives, tax incentives for hiring, and additional steps to increase the avail- ability of loans backed by the Small Business Administration. these policies may be particularly effective at a time when the economy is growing—so that the question for many firms is not whether to hire but when—and at a time when credit availability remains an important constraint.
Initiatives to encourage energy efficiency and clean energy are another
priority. One proposal involves incentives for homeowners to retrofit their homes for energy efficiency. Because in many cases the effect of such incentives would be to lead homeowners to make cost-saving investments
earlier than they otherwise would have, they might have an especially large
impact. In addition, the employment effects would be concentrated in
construction, an area that has been particularly hard-hit by the recession.
78 | Chapter 2
the Administration has also supported extending tax credits through the
Department of energy that promote the manufacture of advanced energy
products and providing incentives to increase the energy efficiency of public and nonprofit buildings.
A third priority is infrastructure investment. the experience of the Recovery Act suggests that spending on infrastructure is an effective way to put people back to work while creating lasting investments that raise future
productivity. For this reason, the Administration is supporting an addi-
tional investment of up to $50 billion in roads, bridges, airports, transit, rail, and water projects. Funneling some of these funds through programs such as the transportation Investment Generating economic Recovery (tIGeR)
program at the Department of transportation, which is a competitive grant
program, could offer a way to ensure that the projects with the highest
returns receive top priority.
Finally, it is critical to maintain our support for the individuals and families most affected by the recession by extending the emergency funding for such programs as unemployment insurance and health insurance subsi-
dies for the unemployed. this support not only cushions the worst effects of the downturn, but also boosts spending and so spurs job creation. Similarly, it is important to maintain support for state and local governments. the
budgets of these governments remain under severe strain, and many are
cutting back in anticipation of fiscal year 2011 deficits. Additional fiscal
support could therefore have a rapid impact on spending, and would do so by maintaining crucial services and preventing harmful tax increases.
Conclusion
the recession that began at the end of 2007 became the ―Great Recession‖ following the financial crisis in the fall of 2008. In the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, American families faced devastating job losses, high unemployment, scarce credit, and lost wealth. Late 2008 and 2009 will be remembered as a time of great trial for American workers, businesses, and families.
But 2009 should also be remembered as a year when even more tragic losses and dislocation did not occur. As terrible as this recession has been, a second Great Depression would have been far worse. Had policymakers not responded as aggressively as they did to shore up the financial system,
maintain demand, and provide relief to those directly harmed by the
downturn, the outcome could have been much more dire.
As 2010 begins, there are strong signs that the American economy is starting to recover. Housing and financial markets appear to have stabilized
Rescuing the economy from the Great Recession | 79
and real GDP is growing again. the labor market also appears to be healing, showing the expected early pattern of response to output expansion.
With millions of Americans still unemployed, much work remains to restore the American economy to health. It will take a prolonged and robust GDP expansion to eliminate the large jobs deficit that has opened up over the course of the recession. Only when the unemployment rate has returned to normal levels and families are once again secure in their jobs, homes, and savings will this terrible recession truly be over.
80 | Chapter 2