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论文中英文摘要格式
作者姓名：巫强
论文题目：进口引致型出口：中国出口成长的实现机制研究
作者简介：巫强，男，19xx年11月出生，20xx年9月师从于南京大学刘志彪教授，于20xx年6月获博士学位。
中 文 摘 要
改革开放后我国出口规模高速增长，20xx年我国出口额是19xx年出口额的67倍，年均增长率达到16.9％；同时我国货物贸易出口额占世界总出口额的比重从19xx年的0.89％上升到20xx年的8％，居世界第三位。我国出口规模的高速增长在世界范围内都很罕见，可以认为是一个出口奇迹。但我国的出口贸易是如何成长为出口奇迹的呢？
与此对应的现实是我国进口越多的地区出口也越多，而且是进口机器设备越多的地区出口会越多。这反映了机器设备进口在我国出口成长过程中起到重要的促进作用。本论文从现实经济现象出发，抽象出“进口引致型出口”范式，以此来阐述我国出口成长的实现机制。“进口引致型出口”是指在我国装备行业落后的情况下，出口行业大量进口来自国外的先进机器设备等资本货物后促进我国出口贸易规模的持续高速增长；它是技术要素跨国流动促进机器设备进口国出口规模扩大的效应。本论文将宏观上我国出口成长的过程与微观上厂商生产过程的主要特征，即机器设备的使用联系起来，从而为解释我国出口奇迹寻找到更为扎实的现实基础。
本论文围绕“进口引致型出口”，即机器设备进口如何促进产品出口进行了全面阐述。本论文的研究路径如下。由于“进口引致型出口”是一个全新范式，所以本论文首先从经验上证明“进口引致型出口”的存在性，然后再通过构建理论模型来解释“进口引致型出口”的内在机制与实现条件。以上两部分都是对“进口引致型出口”的直接研究，但是出口奇迹的实现必然要求生产过程体现为出口市场导向，即要按照国际市场消费者需求和国际市场标准来组织生产，所以本论文研究在国外对产品质量提出更高要求、即实施技术性贸易措施背景
下“进口引致型出口”实现条件，并将其与自主创新的实现条件进行了对比分析。最后，本论文总结了“进口引致型出口”产生的经济效应，并从政策层面上分析了“进口引致型出口”。
本论文在绪论部分先提出了本论文研究的问题是中国出口成长的实现机制，即要从“进口引致型出口”角度来解释中国的出口奇迹；接着对“进口引致型出口”进行全面界定，其中包括“进口引致型出口”的定义以及与相关概念的辨析；然后从两个方面回顾了与“进口引致型出口”相关的理论文献，分别是对中国出口原因与影响因素的研究、出口和进口关系的研究；最后是介绍了本论文的研究思路、研究方法以及可能的创新与不足。
在第二章对“进口引致型出口”的经验研究中，本论文先以纺织业为例描述了该行业中的机器设备进口与产品出口现象，并测算了该行业中机器设备进口与产品出口之间的相关关系；然后采用平稳性检验、Granger因果检验方法，从宏观层面上证明我国机器设备进口额是产品出口额的Granger原因，并运用协整方法揭示了这两者之间的长期均衡关系；为了进一步研究“进口引致型出口”在产业层面的存在性，本论文构建了15组产业层面的专用性机器设备进口额与产品出口额数据，同样采用平稳性检验和Granger因果检验方法，发现机器设备进口在绝大多数涉及的行业中都是产品出口的Granger原因。由此，本论文证明了“进口引致型出口”的存在性。
本论文在第三章通过构建理论模型来研究“进口引致型出口”的内在动力机制，其本质上是要解释“进口引致型出口”的实现条件。本论文先借用了Batra和Casas（1973）中的中间品贸易模型，从HO理论的角度论证了发达国家出口机器设备给发展中国家，后者用进口的机器设备生产最终产品并出口给前者这种贸易分工格局的合理性，对于两者都有利。然后本论文认为发展中国家进口机器设备的原因很容易被理解，但是发达国家出口机器设备给发展中国家的理由需要研究，“进口引致型出口”的内在动力或实现条件主要在于解释后者。于是本论文构建模型论证了当发达国家生产机器设备的上游厂商处于完全垄断市场，而发展中国家生产最终产品的下游厂商处于垄断竞争市场时，发达国家向发展中国家出口机器设备后使得后者下游行业厂商数量增加及均衡定价下降的实现条件；并且推导出发达国家将机器设备出口给发展中国家下游厂商，并纵向转移技术后，能从后者进口更为价格低廉的最终产品，即实现纵向压榨、提升自身收益的实现条件。这就从发达国家角度提出了其愿意出口机器设备给发展中国家下游厂商的一个新的解释，当然它也是“进口引致型出口”的实现条件。
由于我国出口成长必然要求出口厂商以国际市场标准来组织生产，所以国外技术性贸易措施构成了我国出口成长的重要约束。那么“进口引致型出口”如何解决这一约束将有助于我们更为全面地理解我国出口成长的完整过程。本论文第四章在第三章理论模型的基础上，研究了面对技术性贸易措施，我国出口厂商从“进口引致型出口”演变为“进口引致型出口循环”的内在机制，推导出其采用“进口引致型出口循环”策略的实现条件。当然，考虑到
我国出口厂商也可以采用投资研发、即自主创新策略来解决出口成长中的这一约束，所以本 论文还分析了出口厂商采用自主创新策略跨越技术性贸易措施的实现条件，然后将自主创新 策略与“进口引致型出口循环”策略进行比较分析，得出了相应的选择条件。 在对“进口引致型出口”从经验和理论两个方面进行了细致研究后，本论文在第五章总 结了“进口引致型出口”的经济效应。在微观层面上， “进口引致型出口”使得出口厂商生产 规模扩大，单位成本降低，促进新产品研发生产，提高出口产品质量，出口厂商不合理重复 进口机器设备。在宏观层面上， “进口引致型出口”导致我国进口贸易增长迅速，促进我国外 贸增长，提高出口行业整体生产效率，整体出口规模扩大，出口结构优化，促进我国经济增 长，限制我国外贸可持续增长中的技术升级。总之， “进口引致型出口”的经济效应大多为正 面效应，但是也存在负面效应。所以为了尽可能发挥“进口引致型出口”的正面效应而降低 其负面效应，本论文还提出了有关政策建议：总体保持鼓励机器设备进口，合理平衡“进口 引致型出口”与我国装备制造业之间关系，鼓励支持“进口引致型出口”中的模仿创新。关键词： 竞争进口引致型出口；技术性贸易措施；进口引致型出口循环；垄断Import-induced Export: Study on the Realization Mechanism of Chinese Export GrowthWu QiangABSTRACTAfter reform and openness, Chinese export scale kept expanding with high speed. In 2007, the value of Chinese export is 67 times of the value of 1980, annual growth rate of 16.9%. Meanwhile, the ratio of Chinese exports value to world exports value increased from 0.89% in 1980 to 8% in 2006, being the third largest one in the world. The high expanding speed of Chinese export is unique in the world which can be regarded as an export miracle. But how does Chinese export turn into the export miracle? The corresponding fact is the regions in China which import more also export more, and the regions which import more machinery and equipment also export more, which both reflect the important
promoting effect of imported machinery and equipment in the Chinese export growth. This paper proposes the term of ‘Import-induced Export’ from realistic economic fact, in order to explain the realization mechanism of Chinese export growth. Import-induced Export means given the lag of Chinese equipment manufacturing industry, exporting industries import foreign advanced machinery and equipment with large amount, which boots the rapid expanding of Chinese exporting size, which also means the facilitating effect of international technology transfer on the expanding of exporting size for machinery and equipment importing countries. This dissertation links the process of Chinese export growth in the macro level with the main characteristic of production process in the micro level, which is the use of machinery and equipment, and which offers better realistic base for explaining Chinese exporting miracle.
Focusing on Import-induced Export, this dissertation analyzes how the imported machinery and equipment promotes the export of products. The research route is as following. Because Import-induced Export is a new term, this dissertation firstly demonstrates the existence of Import-induced Export empirically, and then constructs a theoretical model to analyze the mechanism and realization condition of Import-induced Export. The above two parts are the direct research on Import-induced Export, but the realization of exporting miracle definitely requires that the production process should be exporting market oriented, which means to organize the production according to the foreign consumer demand and international market standard. So this dissertation studies the realization condition of Import-induced Export under the technical trade barrier when foreign countries set higher standard on the quality of product, and compares this condition with the condition of independent innovation. Finally, this dissertation concludes the economic effect of Import-induced Export, and gives policy proposals about it.
In the introduction chapter, this dissertation proposes the research object is the realization mechanism of Chinese export growth, which means it would explain the Chinese export miracle based on Import-induced Export, and then defines Import-induced Export, including comparison with other terms. Then this part reviews the literature related to Import-induced Export from two aspects. The last part introduces the research route, research method and possible innovation and shortage.
In the second chapter of empirical research, this dissertation describes the machinery and equipment imports and product exports in the textile industry, and calculates the correlation relationship between machinery and equipment imports and product exports in this industry. Then it demonstrates Chinese machinery and equipment imports value grangerly causes product exports by
taking the stationary test, Granger test in the macro level, and finds the long term equilibrium between these two variables by taking Cointegration method. In order to further proving the existence of Import-induced Export, this chapter constructs 15 pairs of data in the industry level which is about the specific machinery and equipment imports and corresponding product exports, and with the same methods before, it finds specific machinery and equipment imports grangerly causes product exports in most pairs, which demonstrates the existence of grangerly causes product exports in the industry level.
In the third chapter, it constructs the theoretical model to study the internal driving power of Import-induced Export, which in essence is about the realization condition of Import-induced Export. By citing the intermediate trade model of Batras and Casas (1973), it proves the benefits of this trade pattern from the framework of HO theory, in which developed country exports machinery and equipment to developing country, and the latter produces and exports final product to the former by using the imported machinery and equipment. It is very easy to understand the motivation of developing country to import machinery and equipment, so this dissertation focuses on the motivation of developed country to export machinery and equipment, which should be the main aspect of the internal driving power of Import-induced Export. So it develops a model to show the condition of the increasing of the number of downward manufacturers and the condition of the decreasing of the price of them after trade of machinery and equipment from upper manufacturer, when the upper manufacturer of developed country who produces and exports machinery and equipment is monopoly, and the downward manufacturers of developing country who produces final products are in the market of monopolistic competition. And it also gets the realization condition for developed country to improve its return and vertically compress by importing cheaper final product from developing country after the former exports machinery and equipment and vertically transfers technology to the latter. This is a new explanation for developed country to export machinery and equipment to developing country’s downward manufacturers, which is also the realization condition of Import-induced Export.
Foreign technical trade barrier (TBT) forms the important constraint for Chinese exporting growth, because the latter requires the exporting firms to produce according to the international market standard. So it is helpful for us to understand the whole process of exporting growth by studying how Import-induced Export reacts to this constraint. The fourth chapter studies the internal mechanism how Chinese exporting firms evolve from Import-induced Export to Import-induced Export Cycle facing TBT and gets the condition for them to choose Import-induced Export Cycle
strategy. On the other side, exporting firms can choose to invest in R&D activity, which means the independent innovation strategy facing TBT, so this dissertation also gets the condition for them to choose independent innovation strategy, and compares these two conditions to get the selection criteria.
After detailed analysis on the Import-induced Export theoretically and empirically, this dissertation concludes the economic effect of Import-induced Export。In micro level, Import-induced Export causes the increasing of production size of exporting firms, decreasing of average cost, facilitating the R&D activity and production of new products, improving the quality of exporting products and repeating importing machinery and equipment unreasonably. And in the macro level, it causes the rapid expansion of importing and foreign trade, improving the total productivity of exporting industries, expanding the total exporting size, optimizing the exporting structure, propelling the economic growth and restricting the technology upgrading in sustainable foreign trade growth. So effects of Import-induced Export are most positive effects, but some are negative effects. And in order to make full use of the positive ones and to avoid the negative ones, this dissertation proposes some policy advice including keeping to encouraging the import of machinery and equipment, balancing the relationship between Import-induced Export and domestic equipment manufacturing, and encouraging the imitative innovation in Import-induced Export.
Key words: Import-induced Export, Technical Trade Barrier (TBT), Import-induced Export Cycle, Monopolistic Competition