時序來到年底，總不免要爲預測未來。知名財經頻道《CNBC》的「追蹤巴菲特」專欄，以巴老的經驗談，胪列

8項不受時空影響的預言。巴菲特靠投資成爲全球首富，最重要的因素就是預測得宜。巴老常看準標的就出手，而且信奉長期持有原則。

以下，即「追蹤巴菲特」蒐集他經驗所提出的預測：

1.衰退永遠無法避免.

20xx年末巴菲特曾說，美國失業率若竄升，將導致骨牌效應，美國經濟將於20xx年衰退。他強調，資本主義的本質，難逃循環性衰退。

2. 我們能因應過去衰退，未來也行.

巴菲特時常重申，美國經濟體質強健，堪稱曆來之最。 過去一世紀有「經濟大蕭條、二次世界大戰與冷戰」等打擊，美國仍屹立不搖。

3.衰退創造機會.

巴菲特曾說：「截至目前，我人生最成功的一次投資在 19xx年，當時美國雖面臨石油危機以及停滯性通膨等威 脅－－但股票很便宜」。

4.並非所有股票都便宜

就像棒球打者等待好球進壘，成功的投資者也在等待時機(股價與標的)，但不會每天發生。巴菲特說：「投資的好處是，你不用被迫揮棒，沒有主審會判你出局」他強調，盲目聽從群衆的「揮棒」要求，麻煩就大了。

5.群衆會犯錯

這句話是巴菲特引述其師葛拉罕 (Benjamin Graham)的說法：「因爲其它人會附和，所以你既不正確也沒犯錯 。當你掌握的事實與推理正確時，預測才會準，且無需理會他人」。

6.股價下跌，不盡然是壞事

誠如巴菲特所說：「任何你未來想買的東西，你都希望 它便宜一點」。因此，不需操心股價下跌。

7.好時機，也有壞選擇

巴菲特20xx年致函柏克夏股東時曾說，在榮景進入股市的投資人就像灰姑娘，總以爲能在午夜(股市下跌)前離 開，因此一昧追高。問題是：股市派對裏，根本沒有時鍾。

8.痛苦後，總會出現另一場狂歡派對

回頭看網路泡沫，巴菲特說：「那時全世界都瘋了。」他強調，我們從歷史中學到的就是－－「人們永遠不會從歷史中學教訓」。

第二篇：巴菲特投资名言

巴菲特最新投资名言Warren Buffett, the billionaire chief executive officer ofBerkshire Hathaway Inc., said he rates businesses on their ability to raise prices and sometimes doesn’t even consider the people in charge.判断一家公司的优劣，我只看它是否有定价权，CEO姓甚名谁有时候根本不在我考虑范围内，股神巴菲特(Warren Buffet)说。“The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power,” Buffett told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in an interview released by the panel last week. “If you’ve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you’ve got a very good business. And if you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10 percent, then you’ve got a terrible business.”“定价权是判断一家公司优劣的黄金标尺，”巴菲特在金融危机调查委员会听证会上说，会议记录上周发布。“如果你有本事提价还不丢客户，你就是好公司。如果连提价10%还两腿发抖求菩萨，你就是差公司。”Buffett, 80, accumulated the world’s third-largest personal fortune through a career of stock picks and takeovers. He has bought companies such as railroads and electricity producers, whose pricing power stems from a dearth of competitive options available to clients. Buffett has also built stakes in firms like Coca-Cola Co. and Kraft Foods Inc., which rely on the appeal of their brands to attract and keep customers.今年80岁的巴菲特通过成功的选股和收购成为世界排名第三的富豪。他收购的一些公司，比如铁路和电力公司，得益于消费者选择有限，拥有强大的定价权。他投资的一些公司，比如可口可乐和卡夫(Kraft)食品，都靠品牌效应吸引并留住顾客。“The extraordinary business does not require good management,” Buffett said in the interview, which was conducted on May 26 in Omaha, Nebraska.爱思英语网“顶级公司并不需要最好的管理，”巴菲特在20xx年5月26日尼布拉斯州奥马哈的一次采访中说。The FCIC investigators focused on Buffett’s investment in Moody’s Corp., the bond-ratings firm blamed by lawmakers for handing out inflated credit grades during the housing boom. Buffett said he held stock in Moody’s because the company’s leading market share, along with that of rival Standard & Poor’s, a subsidiary of McGraw-Hill Cos., gave the two firms flexibility in setting prices.金融危机调查委员会的调查重点是巴菲特对信用评级公司穆迪的投资，不少议员认为，穆迪在美国房地产热的时候故意给出夸大不实的信用等级。巴菲特说，他持有穆迪股票是基于对公司定价权的考量，穆迪与其竞争对手标准普尔一样，拥有领先市场份额，因此都有定价的自由。Pricing Power定价权

“I knew nothing about the management of Moody’s,” said Buffett. “If you own the only newspaper in town, up until the last five years or so, you had pricing power and you didn’t have to go to the office.”“我对穆迪的管理层一无所知，”巴菲特说，“比如说，你是全市独一无二的报纸发行商，直到大约五年前，你都有绝对的定价权，所以你根本不需要去办公室上班。”爱思英语网A dominant position can’t prevent a bad manager from destroying a company over time, said Benjamin E. Hermalin, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business.再好的公司对糟糕的管理者也没有永远的免疫力，加州伯克利大学商学院经济学教授Benjamin E. Hermalin说。“If you have a really dominant position you can survive for quite a long time with bad management but eventually it will catch up to you,” said Hermalin. “In the short run I would agree with Buffett but in the longer-run perspective there is something to be said for having a good manager.”爱思英语网“一个有绝对竞争优势的好公司可能在糟糕的管理下能维持相当长一段时间，但早晚有一天会被拖垮。如果只考虑短期，我同意巴菲特的观点，但长远来看，找个好经理人不是没有道理，”Hermalin说。爱思英语网Burlington Northern Santa Fe, the railroad Buffett bought last year for $26.5 billion, owns more than 30,000 miles of track across the U.S. West connecting producers and distributors of coal, grain and consumer goods. Omaha-based Berkshire’s power company, MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., sells electricity to homes in the Great Plains and transports natural gas fromWyoming to California.去年，巴菲特以265亿美元收购铁路公司Burlington Northern Santa Fe，它拥有美国西部超过3万英里（近5万公里）的铁路线，是煤炭、谷物和日常消费品的运输要道。巴菲特麾下的投资公司Berkshire Hathaway拥有的电力公司MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. 掌控美国中部大平原地区（覆盖美国中部十个州，译者注）的居民用电和从怀俄明到加州一带的天然气运输。Praise From Buffett巴菲特的赞扬爱思英语网Buffett routinely singles out and praises managers from Berkshire’s more than 70 operating companies. MidAmerican Chairman David Sokol and Gregory Abel, the unit’s CEO, are “two terrific managers,” Buffett said last year in his letter to shareholders. The acquisition of Burlington Northern had the “additional virtue” of bringing the railroad’s CEO, Matthew Rose, to Berkshire, Buffett said.巴菲特定期从Berkshire控股的７０多家公司中挑选出优秀的经理人并给与赞扬。MidAmerican能源公司主席David Sokol和CEO Gregory Abel是“两

个杰出的经理人”，巴菲特在20xx年致股东的信中说。收购Burlington Northern铁路公司的意外之喜是CEO Matthew Rose能够加盟Berkshire，巴菲特说。Buffett criticized Kraft Chief Executive Officer Irene Rosenfeld last year for her takeover of Cadbury Plc and the sale of the foodmaker’s pizza brands. “Both deals were dumb,” Buffett told Berkshire investors in May. Berkshire is the biggest shareholder of Kraft with a stake valued at $3.3 billion at the end of December.爱思英语网去年，巴菲特对卡夫食品CEO Irene Rosenfeld收购吉百利(Cadbury)，又卖掉自家的皮萨品牌的做法严加指责。“这两个交易都笨透了，”巴菲特在五月的Berkshire股东大会上说。Berkshire是卡夫食品的最大股东，截至去年12月，拥有其33亿美元的股票。“In the short run, good management can make a stock pop but I follow what Warren’s saying, especially because his point of view looks at the fundamentals,” said Terry Connelly, dean of the Ageno School of Business at Golden Gate University in San Francisco, and a former managing director at Salomon Brothers. “Good management can’t do anything with a bad case.”“短期内，好的经理人可能会让股价往上蹿一下，但我同意巴菲特的观点，因为用他的基本面分析法来看，再好的经理人也不能把一个坏公司起死回生，”旧金山金门大学商学院院长，所罗门兄弟前常务董事Terry Connelly说。34xxxxxxxxxxxx