美国投行Wedbush的比特币研究报告(1)

电脑服务：金融科技

2014年1月2日

吉尔·卢里亚（Gil Luria）          亚伦·特纳（Aaron Turner ） 
（213）688-4501                 （213)688-4429      

gil.luria@ wedbush.com                                 aaron.turner@ wedbush.com  

比特币：作为颠覆性支付网络科技通道的内在价值

在其它方面，我们认为比特币及其相关技术代表了改变游戏规则，颠覆传统支付公司的一种可能性。

我们已经看到了比特币作为一个全球资助的开源支付网络通道的内在价值。

我们观察到了比特币需求的三个主要原因 - 作为一种颠覆性的支付网络技术，一种不相关资产类别的替代品和一种避险的货币，但我们相信比特币的早期领导者认为比特币的支付网络功能才是比特币永续性的关键。

我们相信通过分散的处理，将会产生以市场为基础的收费标准和增加新的功能，加密货币技术提供了一个强大的替代品牌网络。加密货币技术最原始的优势可能是处理小额交易和跨境支付，在这方面创新的潜力是显著的。灵活的收费结构和具有竞争力的价格/滞后动态。我们认为比特币更适合于替代高费用的品牌网络处理的小额支付。我们相信跨境交易将从避免货币兑换或进行外汇交易外的支付网络功能中获益。我们更近一步的认为加密货币技术优于现在的支付网络，例如，交易挂钩的代码、不同的结算费用/时间表和货币的流动性分析。

我们认为比特币到目前为止成功的关键是对未来的重大承诺，在集体的资助下，花费几十年的时间把比特币开发成第一个新的全球的支付网络。通过允许基础设施供应商在渠道/货币（比特币）中获得补偿，然后通过销售他们的渠道/货币来增加投资者，这个支付网络在一个非常广泛的基础设施供应商和投资者的参与下迅速资本化。

我们已经看到世界上主要的国家打算监管比特币的证据（德国、美国和中国）。尽管比特币对他们本国的货币存在威胁，但是他们并没有封杀比特币。更重要的是在我们心目中它是一个分散式的结构，如果少数国家选择不干预或无法干预，比特币技术可能会获得长足的发展。

让我们继续相信比特币是一个有意义的概率货币（真正的货币或通道），它可能会失败，但这极有可能导致一个更好的加密货币的出现。我们认为，替代的货币将不断涌现，虽然现在还没出现能取代比特币的加密货币。 正如任何新的颠覆性技术一样，我们预计这种新的技术力量将继续被用于非法的目的。我们还相信，鉴于早期的发展和革命技术，它的缺陷将会被发现并且被利用。 

基于订单顺序级的整体机会和非常粗略的计算，我们相信一个比特币价格会上升到现在的10-100倍（2、3页）。我们相信比特币价格的上升有助于构建网络从而固守它的价值，特别是相对于其他替代货币/通道。在此基础上，我们推测目前比特币的价格反映了10年总潜在需求1%的一个峰值渗透 。

我们相信比特币价格的波动是一个价格扩展过程克服市场摩擦和众多分歧的结果。在广泛的分歧中（0或10X + ），我们认为比特币等价于能治疗普通感冒的生物技术。因此，我们不期望波动会很快消失。

这项技术主要对支付网络存在长期的威胁（ V， MA）和技术辅助者（ACIW ）。我们认为加密货币技术在新引入功能上具有优势，并且高级的点对点的成本结构也优秀于目前中心辐射的品牌网络。

我们已经看到和支付类型技术无关的供应商EBAY长期占领支付市场。对于贝宝，比特币代表了另一种潜在的低成本融资方式。贝宝已经打上私人标签卡、礼品卡和数字钱包的标签。我们相信随着对贝宝监管的透明化，越来越多的人会开始拥抱比特币。

附加分析：

我们观察到了比特币需求的三个原因 - 作为一种颠覆性的支付网络技术，一种不相关资产类别的替代品和一种避险的货币，但我们相信比特币的早期领导者认为比特币的支付网络功能才是比特币永续性的关键。基于订单顺序级的整体机会和非常粗略的计算，我们相信一个比特币价格会上升到现在的10-100倍 （图1）在此基础上，我们推测目前比特币的价格反映了10年总潜在需求1%的一个峰值渗透 。

作为一个不相关的替代资产类别，我们相信比特币将成功的取代一些对黄金的需求，即代表了1.9万亿美元的总金融资产。作为保值货币，我们相信这个需求代表了在通货膨胀国家的消费者保护他们收入的一种方式，这个机会代表了一个额外的4.3万亿美元需求。

我们相信比特币的最大卖点是它支付交易功能，尤其是跨境贸易。外汇储备处理的跨境贸易约有75000亿美元。我们相信如果比特币能成为处理这些交易的一个子集通道，它将被证明是一个价值的货币或保值货币。

图1：引申比特币一年的价格



（单位百万美元）

全球外汇货币储备                   7453736美元（1） 

高通货膨胀国家的货币供应量         4305488美元 （图2 ）

黄金作为的金融资产                 1900000美元（2）

潜在的总需求                       13659224美元

20##年预计供应量                   1300万个BTC

（1）资料来源：国际货币基金组织 

（2）资料来源：WGC

第二篇：Mesure the Resistance via the Wheastone Bridge 电桥法测电阻 实验报告 英语

Measure the Resistance via the Wheastone Bridge

1.The purpose:

i.              To understand the principle and characteristics of the Wheatstone bridge.

ii.              To understand the concept of sensitivity of bridge.

iii.              Learn the “exchange measure method”, with which to eliminate the system error.

2.The apparatus:

   Unknown resistances; DC power supply; galvanometer; resistor box; variable resistor; switch and other electrical components; electrical bridge.

3.Theories:                                                    

1)The principle and the structure of the Wheatstone bridge

 

When U_C=U_D

R_X=

2)The sensitivity of the Wheatstone bridge

Because of the sensitivity of the galvanometer is limited, the current through the galvanometer is not truly zero, and the galvanometer cannot efficiently measure it.

The sensitivity of the bridge is defined as the ratio between the deflection of the galvanometer, Dd, and the corresponding relative value of R₀.

S=

3)The “exchange measure method”.

Exchange the positions of R1 and R2, or R0 and Rx, and adjusting R0 to R0 ¢, the bridge can get a new balanced state，and               R_X= 

Combine this equation with R_X=, we can get:

R_X=

This equation has nothing to do with R₁ and R₂. In this way we can make the error only relate to the instrument error of R₀, which is the instrument error of resistor box.

4.The procedures:

1)     Use simply constructed bridge to measure the metal film resistor.

Connect the circuit and measure the resistance then exchange R₀ and R_X measure the resistance again.

The key points:

         i.              Find the balance point.

       ii.              Measure the sensitivity of the bridge.

    iii.              Exchange R₀ and R_X measure the resistance again.

Error analysis:

The uncertainty of R₀:

_apparatus=R_{0 apparatus}=0.1%R_o+0.005(K+1)

The error caused by the sensitivity of the bridge is:

Δ=R₀  (S is the sensitivity of the galvanometer)

U_Ro=

The relative uncertainty of R_X is:

= (N=1.0)

2)     Use box-bridge to measure the resistance.

         i.              Make the reading of galvanometer back to “0” via mechanical method.

       ii.              Open K, press G button, adjust M and keep the galvanometer balance.

    iii.              Connect R_X with X.

     iv.              Adjust the system and record the resistance R₀ which make the galvanometer balance.

Error analysis:

The limit of fundamental error is:

E_lim=α%(NR_o+)

The error caused by the sensitivity of the bridge box is:

Δ=NR₀

The relative uncertainty of R_X is:

U_Rx=

5.Data processing:

TEST ONE.

Use simply constructed bridge to measure the metal film resistor.

a)      For U=8V R_inner=100Ω

R_X==Ω=498.35Ω

S===277

The uncertainty of R₀:

_apparatus=R_{0 apparatus}=0.1%R_o+0.005(K+1)

=0.1%497.7Ω+0.005(4+1)=0.5227Ω

The error caused by the sensitivity of the bridge is:

Δ=R₀=497.7Ω=0.3594Ω

U_Ro=

==0.63434Ω

The relative uncertainty of R_X is:

=

==9.0123x10^-4

==9.0123x10^-4x498.35Ω=0.45Ω

R_X=498.350.45Ω

b)      For U=8V R_inner=2500Ω

R_X==Ω=499.05Ω

S===53.6

The uncertainty of R₀:

_apparatus=R_{0 apparatus}=0.1%R_o+0.005(K+1)

=0.1%498.1Ω+0.005(4+1)=0.5231Ω

The error caused by the sensitivity of the bridge is:

Δ=R₀=498.1Ω=1.859Ω

U_Ro=

==1.9312Ω

The relative uncertainty of R_X is:

=

==2.7415x10^-3

==2.7415x10^-3x499.05Ω=1.4Ω

R_X=499.01.4Ω

c)       For U=4V R_inner=100Ω

R_X==Ω=498.85Ω

S===135

The uncertainty of R₀:

_apparatus=R_{0 apparatus}=0.1%R_o+0.005(K+1)

=0.1%497.7Ω+0.005(4+1)=0.5227Ω

The error caused by the sensitivity of the bridge is:

Δ=R₀=497.7Ω=0.7373Ω

U_Ro=

==0.90378Ω

The relative uncertainty of R_X is:

=

==1.2840x10^-3

==1.2840x10^-3x498.85Ω=0.6Ω

R_X=498.80.6Ω

d)      For U=4V R_inner=2500Ω

R_X==Ω=499.15Ω

S===31.1

The uncertainty of R₀:

_apparatus=R_{0 apparatus}=0.1%R_o+0.005(K+1)

=0.1%498.2Ω+0.005(4+1)=0.5232Ω

The error caused by the sensitivity of the bridge is:

Δ=R₀=498.2Ω=3.010Ω

U_Ro=

==3.0551Ω

The relative uncertainty of R_X is:

=

==4.3362x10^-3

==4.3362x10^-3x499.15Ω=2.2Ω

R_X=499.22.2Ω

TEST TWO

Use box-bridge to measure the resistance.

A.      For resistor R_X1

S===17.4x10³

The limit of fundamental error is:

E_lim=α%(NR_o+)=0.1%x5120.4Ω+1Ω=6.1204Ω

The error caused by the sensitivity of the bridge box is:

Δ=NR₀=1x5120.4Ωx=0.058855Ω

The relative uncertainty of R_X is:

U_Rx==

   =6Ω

R_X=51206Ω

B.      For resistor R_X2

S===26.9x10³

The limit of fundamental error is:

E_lim=α%(NR_o+)=0.1%x10^-1x4983.8Ω+0.1Ω

=0.59838Ω (=10000, and I get it from

E_lim=α%(NR_o+)=₀+1)

The error caused by the sensitivity of the bridge box is:

Δ=NR₀=10^-1x4983.8Ωx=0.0037054Ω

The relative uncertainty of R_X is:

U_Rx=

=

   =0.6

R_X=498.46Ω

Discussion:

In the 1^st test, “use simply constructed bridge to measure the metal film resistor”. As we can see that the “exchange measure method” eliminated the error which caused by the uncertainty of R₁ and R₂.Thus the main error in this experiment is the instrumental error of the resistor box (U_Ro). The instrumental error is mainly caused byR_{0 apparatus}. The error caused by the sensitivity of the bridge (Δ) also contributes to the error U_Ro.

   From the form, we can get that R_{0 apparatus} plays an important role in the error when the inner resistance of the galvanometer is relative small or the voltage of the power is relative larger. On the other hand, the error caused by the sensitivity of the bridge (Δ) is the main error when the inner resistance of the galvanometer is big or the voltage of the power is small.

In the 2^nd test, “use box-bridge to measure the resistance”.

The main error is the fundamental error limit (E_lim) and the error caused by the sensitivity of the bridge box (Δ).

   We can easily get that the main error in “use box-bridge to measure the resistance” is the fundamental error limit (E_lim). And the error caused by the sensitivity of the bridge box (Δ) is so small that it can be neglected.

6.Conclusions:

From this experiment we can get that:

In the 1^st test, “use simply constructed bridge to measure the metal film resistor”

In the 2^nd test, “use box-bridge to measure the resistance”.

What’s more, when we use simply constructed bridge to measure the resistance, we’d better use a power supply with relative high voltage and also we should use a galvanometer with small inner resistance.

   While we use the box bridge, the error mainly relate to E_lim, and E_lim=α%(NR_o+), thus it is better to measure small resistor with box bridge.