1. The following appeared as part of an article in a business magazine. "A recent study rating 300 male and female Mentian advertising executives according to the average number of hours they sleep per night showed an
association between the amount of sleep the executives need and the success of their firms. Of the advertising firms studied, those whose executives reported needing no more than 6 hours of sleep per night had higher profit margins and faster growth. These results suggest that if a business wants to prosper, it should hire only people who need less than 6 hours of sleep per night." Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
以下是14的范文，请大家读完后，将它改写为argument 118 Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be
answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
注意尽管题目要求不同但是结构和内容基本一致 只需要在措辞上进行调整
The article argues that companies should hire people who need less sleep because these employees are more likely to succeed based on a survey of 300 advertising executives. A number of assumptions have been made about the generalisability of the survey result, the reliability of the reported need of sleep and other related issues. We need to examine the assumptions carefully in order to assess the argument.
To begin with, the assumption that the survey results can be applied more broadly may not hold true. The subjects of the survey are all from a single industry, namely, advertising. Maybe it is important for people in this field to burn the midnight’s oil to prosper. But this rule may not apply to other
industries, for example, insurance or manufacturing. In addition, the survey only asks the executives who may have to work extra hours to lead the companies. But for employees at lower level sleeping less may not be very helpful for achieving success.
In addition, it is assumed that the executives actually need little sleep as reported in the survey. In other words, the assumption is that the subjects
were telling the truth about their lifestyles during the survey. It is possible that the survey respondents just want to impress others or show their attitudes towards sleep when answering the questions. Without further data to verify the reliability of the survey results, it is not reasonable to apply the finding in the hiring processes.
Another assumption being made is that the need of less sleep is the main reason why the executives were successful. As we all know, correlation does not necessarily imply causation. A host of other factors unrelated to sleep may have caused the success of the executives. For example, they might happen to have a good team of people working efficiently towards their goals. Or they were lucky enough to meet some clients who were willing to pay higher fees which boosted the profit margins and the growth rates. Without looking into how they achieved success, it is too hasty to attribute their accomplishments to their sleep patterns.
Finally, it is also assumed that executives with less need for sleep can succeed in the long term. Maybe they manage to accomplish more than their peers with their abilities to sleep less. But we do not know how the relatively small amount of sleep would have any negative impact on their health and their performance in the long term. We also do not know how their lifestyles may affect the overall job satisfaction of themselves and their co-workers. If their abilities to sleep less would enable them to work overtime, maybe they would also force their colleagues to work overtime, which may not benefit the long-term success of a company.
In conclusion, it is not reasonable to recommend hiring people who need less sleep based on this survey on a relatively small group of executives from a single industry. More information is needed before we can check the
assumptions discussed above and make a more reasonable hiring policy.
2.
Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been made only by the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a "Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could have crossed it only by boat, and no Palean boats have been found. Thus it follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not uniquely Palean.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
Outline
focus on whether the river could be crossed by people without any help: not so deep and broad; frozen in winter
discuss the possible bridges and boats which might not survive the time explore the possibility of the baskets being carried by water
According to this argument, the Palean baskets may have been made by people from areas other than Palea as the baskets have been found in the adjacent village. We need more evidence about geographical information of the area, the technologies of building boats and bridges and the characteristics of the baskets in order to evaluate the argument.
While the author assumes that the baskets could only have been carried by boats which had not been found, there are other possible scenarios. For example, maybe the river at the time was not as deep and broad as it is now. If the river was shallow and narrow, people in Palea and Lithos could be trading baskets by walking across the river. On the other hand, maybe the weather was extremely cold at the time and the river was frozen during the winter. Again the people from the two villages could simply walk across the river to trade. So we need more information about the geography and climate in the area at the time to assess how likely the scenarios discussed above were.
We also need to know more about the technologies of Palean and Lithoian people at the time for building boats and bridges. Specifically, we want to know whether they were able to build boats and bridges and if they could what materials they used. Maybe they could build boats or bridges to cross the river
but the materials they used could not survive the time and left no traces for archaeologists to locate. The absence of any tangible traces of boats or bridges does not necessarily imply no boats or bridges were available then. More information regarding these issues is needed.
Another importance piece of evidence we need is the materials being used to make the baskets. Specifically, we want to know whether the baskets could float in the water. It is possible that some of the baskets had been dumped by Palean people to the river and carried by the water to the other side of the river and then picked up by Lithoian people. To assess how likely this scenario is, we need to know the density of the materials of the baskets along with some other physical characteristics.
In conclusion, it is difficult to decide whether people from Lithos may have learned to make the baskets. More information about different issues discussed above has to be gathered to assess the strength of the argument.
25分钟
conclusion; Palean baskets were not uniquely Palean; other villages can produce similar baskets key question: are the newly found baskets locally produced or transported from Palean
whether the river was that deep and broad at the time
boats from other villages? what materials were available for making boats; can they survive
possible bridge?
trading relationship?
3. Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions.
They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year.
Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it.
Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining.
Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.
P1: more evidence about the accuracy of the hunters’ reports
- whether the hunters had scared away the deer with their guns
- whether the hunters had visited the area in a particular point in time when the deer were less active - how many hunters had reported the deer population; the number was small- less reliable
P2: more evidence about the sea ice in arctic region
- whether the sea ice in arctic region had melted (global warming trend does not mean local warming)
- whether more food was available near the habitat due to the climate change (then no need to travel)
P3: evidence that may provide other explanations for the decline of deer population
- any pollution that may threaten the deer population
- overhunting
4. The following is a letter to the editor of the Waymarsh Times.
"Traffic here in Waymarsh is becoming a problem. Although just three years ago a state traffic survey showed that the typical driving commuter took 20 minutes to get to work, the commute now takes closer to 40 minutes, according to the survey just completed. Members of the town council already have suggested more road building to address the problem, but as well as being expensive, the new construction will surely disrupt some of our residential neighborhoods. It would be better to follow the example of the nearby city of Garville. Last year Garville implemented a policy that rewards people who share rides to work, giving them coupons for free gas. Pollution levels in Garville have dropped since the policy was implemented, and people from Garville tell me that commuting times have fallen considerably. There is no reason why a policy like Garville's shouldn't work equally well in Waymarsh."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
全文示范
部分同学写这篇的时候问题较多。有同学希望我讲一下argument的中间段如何展开。我在这里试下分析这篇示范。
According to the letter, Waymarsh should introduce a policy similar to that of Garville to encourage more drivers to share rides with others to solve a perceived traffic problem. This policy will be better than the road building
project proposed by the city council. To evaluate this argument, we need more evidence about the surveys indicating the traffic problem, the policy
implemented in Garville that is now proposed for Waymarsh, as well as its strengths and weaknesses relative to the road construction plan.
首先主旨句用 we need more evidence about A, B as well as C的句型 分别呼应中间三段
To begin with, we need to examine the surveys more critically to decide if there is indeed a traffic problem in Waymarsh. We need to know more about how participants were recruited in the two respective surveys to determine if the results are comparable. Maybe one survey focused more on one group of
people who go to work at 6 am and the other on those travelling at 8am. Under such circumtances, the difference in commute time does not mean the traffic in Waymarsh had turned worse. Also, it is important to look into how reliable the
self-reported data about commute time was in both surveys. Drivers do not necessarily recall how much time they spent commuting accurately and their estimation can deviate considerably from the reality. If the survey authors did not collect other data to verify the results, the conclusion based on the surveys would be questionable. If Waymarsh traffic has no problem, there is no need to introduce the proposed policy.
主题句这里提出关注的重点在于究竟交通有没有问题
We need to know more about how participants were recruited in the two
respective surveys to determine if the results are comparable. 这句话是回应题目的要求 需要什么证据 其实就是需要什么信息
Maybe one survey focused more on one group of people who go to work at 6 am and the other on those travelling at 8am. 接下来提出某种可能性
Under such circumtances, the difference in commute time does not mean the traffic in Waymarsh had turned worse. 然后指出这种情况下 会发生什么 往往是和原题相反或矛盾的情况
Also, it is important to look into how reliable the self-reported data about commute time was in both surveys. 再回应题目 另一种需要的信息
Drivers do not necessarily recall how much time they spent commuting
accurately and their estimation can deviate considerably from the reality. 再提出其他可能性 If the survey authors did not collect other data to verify the results, the
conclusion based on the surveys would be questionable. 指出这种可能性下 结论不成立 If Waymarsh traffic has no problem, there is no need to introduce the proposed policy. 最后呼应主题句，指出这个点和原文论证某个基础的关系
由此可见本段基本上就是
1 提出需要的证据
2 提出其他可能性
3 指出这种可能性成立对原论证的影响
这样一个三步循环
我想我大部分的argument都是依照这个套路的 具体还要再找些文章来验证一下
In addition, we need to collect more information about how the policy has changed the traffic in Garville and how a similar policy will affect people’s behaviors in Waymarsh. The fact that pollution levels dropped does not necessarily imply that the policy had reduced the traffic and the amount of exhaust in Garville. Maybe when the policy was introduced more draconian measures were also taken to reduce pollution caused by factories in
Garville. Also, it was not clear that the commuting time have decreased for
most of Garville drivers and passengers based on the anecdotal evidence that the author of the letter collected through casual conversation with some people in Garville. More systematic data collection is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of the policy in Garville. Meanwhile, we do not know how attractive the coupons would seem to the Waymarsh drivers. Maybe the income level is much higher among Waymarsh residents that the small amount of saving from the coupons would not create enough incentives for them to give up their privacy and share rides with strangers. Likewise, maybe Waymarsh drivers and passengers are more concerned with safety and reluctant to share rides despite the financial rewards. Unless we know more about Waymarsh drivers and commuters’ attitudes towards the policy, we cannot be sure whether the policy will work in Waymarsh. In addition, we need to collect more information about how
the policy has changed the traffic in Garville and how a
similar policy will affect people’s behaviors in
Waymarsh. 这句还是回应题目要求指出需要哪方面的证据或信
息
注意主旨句中说的是 the policy implemented in Garville that
is now proposed for Waymarsh
这里就更细致的展开 但是还是围绕policy来说的
The fact that pollution levels dropped does not necessarily
imply that the policy had reduced the traffic and the amount
of exhaust in Garville. 这句话有同学觉得读起来有些复杂 主
要是主语和宾语都是从句 然后imply这个词可能不太熟悉
但这个 The fact that ... does not necessarily imply that ...
的句型还是挺有用的
这里是质疑原题对某个事实潜在的诠释
Maybe when the policy was introduced more draconian measures
were also taken to reduce pollution caused by factories in
Garville.
这句提出其他可能性
Also, it was not clear that the commuting time have decreased
for most of Garville drivers and passengers based on the
anecdotal evidence that the author of the letter collected
through casual conversation with some people in
Garville.
这里质疑原题中的证据的可靠性
More systematic data collection is necessary to evaluate the
effectiveness of the policy in Garville.
提出需要更多的数据
Meanwhile, we do not know how attractive the coupons would
seem to the Waymarsh drivers. 提出另一个问题 开始回应主题句中how a similar policy
will affect people’s behaviors in Waymarsh.
Maybe the income level is much higher among Waymarsh
residents that the small amount of saving from the coupons
would not create enough incentives for them to give up their
privacy and share rides with strangers.
提出其他可能性
Likewise, maybe Waymarsh drivers and passengers are more
concerned with safety and reluctant to share rides despite
the financial rewards.
再提出其他可能性
Unless we know more about Waymarsh drivers and commuters’
attitudes towards the policy, we cannot be sure whether the
policy will work in Waymarsh.
总结第二点
Finally, we need to compare the cost and benefits of the ride sharing policy with the proposed road construction project. It is true that some neighborhood will have to live with noise and disruption for a few months when the road is built. But this disruption can be measured quantitatively by offering the
affected residents some monetary compensation. On the other hand, the gas coupons will also cost money, not to mention the extra police forces that might be necessary to ensure the safety of people who share rides with strangers. Ultimately, we need to calculate the total costs of both proposals and compared them with the benefits of each in terms of time that can be saved for commuting. Unless we have more quantitative data about the cost and benefit of both solutions, it is difficult for us to decide which one is more desirable.
Finally, we need to compare the cost and benefits of the ride
sharing policy with the proposed road construction
project.
这里已经看不到 we need more information about的句型 但是
提出要比较其实也需要收集数据或证据
It is true that some neighborhood will have to live with noise
and disruption for a few months when the road is built.
先对原题的事实作出回应和让步
But this disruption can be measured quantitatively by
offering the affected residents some monetary
compensation.
这里是经济学的思考方式 所有的东西都换算成货币
这个写法可能稍微有点难 不过argument有不少内容和经济学还
是有关系的
On the other hand, the gas coupons will also cost money, not
to mention the extra police forces that might be necessary
to ensure the safety of people who share rides with
strangers.
指出另一个方案的成本 除了明显的成本 还有隐形成本 呼应前面
提到的安全问题
Ultimately, we need to calculate the total costs of both
proposals and compared them with the benefits of each in terms
of time that can be saved for commuting.
基于前面对两种方案成本的分析 提出需要计算总的成本进行比
较
Unless we have more quantitative data about the cost and
benefit of both solutions, it is difficult for us to decide
which one is more desirable.
最后总结 提出需要定量数据
（其实这也是文科越来越不值钱的原因 大数据时代 磨嘴皮已经
没什么意思 建模 写代码才是王道）
我的提纲里提到50年 但实际示范中并没有写这个点 具体怎
么写大家自己决定
In conclusion, while the proposed policy seems useful, we need to collect more information to address the issues discussed above to evaluate the soundness of the argument.
5.The following appeared in a letter to the school board in the town of Centerville.
"All students should be required to take the driver's education course at Centerville High School. In the past two years, several accidents in and around Centerville have involved teenage drivers. Since a number of parents in Centerville have complained that they are too busy to teach their teenagers to drive, some other instruction is necessary to ensure that these teenagers are safe drivers. Although there are two driving schools in Centerville, parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction. Therefore an effective and mandatory program sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The author of the letter argues that the only way to solve the problem of accidents involving teenage drivers is to introduce a compulsory program funded by Centervill High School. We need to gather more information to examine a number of assumptions about the accidents, the parents, the driving schools and the high school in order to decide whether the argument is reasonable.
It is assumed that the problem of accidents involving teenage drivers is serious enough to justify the resources required to run the proposed program. The author mentioned that there were several accidents involving teenage drivers. But we do not know how serious the accidents were. Were there people killed or severely injured? Were automobiles involved completely destroyed? If the accidents were not serious enough, maybe it is not worthwhile to run an education program for all teenage drivers. In addition, we need to know the actual causes of the accidents in order to decide whether teenage drivers should be blamed. Maybe the accidents were due to the mistakes made by adult drivers in the accidents. Or they were due to mechanical failure. In such scenarios, the education programs would not be helpful.
Another assumption is that most parents were too busy to teach their children how to drive safely. According to the letter, some parents complained that they did not have the time. But we do not know how widespread the problem is among all the parents in Centerville. We need more information about how much time, in average, parents of teenage drivers in Centerville can afford to teach their children in order to assess the claim that parents could not help solve the problem.
With regard to the driving schools, it is assumed that parents could not afford the instructions due to their tight budgets. To examine this assumption, more information is required about the parents’ budget and how they perceive the needs to educate their children about driving safely. If the parents consider it essential to offer their children the instruction, maybe they will pay for the courses of the driving schools despite their tight budgets.
When the program is proposed, it is further assumed that Centerville school has the authority to require all students to take the course and the capabilities and funding to run an effective course. Since driving may not be part of the school curriculum, it is not clear whether the school has the authority or power to make it compulsory for all students to take the course. In addition, we do not know if the school would have enough experience and human resources to run an effective program. Also, the Centerville school may not have enough funding to finance such a program. Therefore, we need more information about all these issues to check the assumptions.
Finally, it is assumed that the proposed program is the only solution to the problem. There are alternative solutions that need to be explored. For example, maybe the school could outsource the teaching jobs to one of the two driving schools in Centerville as they are more experienced in running such programs and may do so at lower costs. And if the problem is due to some specific behavior issues such as drink and drive or speeding, more rigorous law enforcement could be another solution. Without thoroughly investigating other possible solutions, it is unwise to accept the proposed program as the only solution.
In conclusion, this mandatory program may be helpful for addressing the problem. But we need to scrutinize the assumptions discussed above with more empirical data to evaluate the validity of the argument.