China’s economic performance over the past 30 years has been remarkable.It is a unique development success story, providing valuable lessons for other countries seeking to emulate this success—lessons about the importance of adapting to local initiative and interregional competition; integrating with the world; adjusting to new technologies; building world-class infrastructure; and investing heavily in its people. In the next 15 to 20 years, China is wellpositioned to join the ranks of the world’s high-income countries. China’s policy makers are already focused on how to change the country’s growth strategy to respond to the new challenges that will come, and avoid the ―middle income trap.‖ That is clearly reflected in both the 11th and 12th Five Year Plans, with their focus on quality of growth,structural reforms to harness innovation and economic efficiency, and social inclusion to overcome the rural-urban divide and the income equality gap.
The idea behind this study was developed in 2010, at the celebrations for the 30th anniversary of the China–World Bank partnership.To commemorate that milestone, President Zoellick proposed to Chinese leaders to work jointly on identifying and analyzing China’s medium-term development challenges looking forward to 2030. Together, China and the World Bank would conduct research drawing on lessons from international experience as well as China’s own successful development record, and prepare a strategic framework for reforms that could assist China’s policy making as well as guide future China–World Bank relations. China’s state leaders welcomed and supported the proposal.This report, China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society, represents the results of that work. The research was organized jointly by China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF), the Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC), and the World Bank. The report was written and produced by a joint team from DRC and the World Bank who worked together as equal partners. The team held numerous workshops, prepared several studies and background papers, and forged common ideas as well as bonds of friendship and mutual respect. A preliminary report was discussed at a highlevel international conference held on September 3, 2011, at which many Chinese and international experts provided helpful comments and guidance. This volume builds on these comments and further work commissioned by the team.
The report is based on the strong conviction that China has the potential to become a modern, harmonious, and creative highincome society by 2030.
In order to reach that objective, however, China must change its policy and institutional framework. China’s next phase of development will need to build on its considerable strengths—high savings, plentiful and increasingly skilled labor, and the potential for further urbanization—and capitalize on external opportunities that include continued globalization, the rapid growth of other emerging economies, and promising new technologies. At the same time, China will need to address a number of significant challenges and risks, such as an aging society, rising inequality, a large and growing environmental deficit, and stubborn external imbalances. The report proposes six strategic directions for China’s new development strategy. First, rethinking the role of the state and the private sector to encourage increased competition in the economy. Second, encouraging innovation and adopting an open innovation system with links to global research and development networks. Third, looking to green development as a significant new growth opportunity. Fourth, promoting equality of opportunity and social protection for all. Fifth, strengthening the fiscal system and improving fiscal sustainability. Sixth, ensuring that China, as an international stakeholder, continues its integration with global markets.
Using the 12th Five Year Plan as a starting point, and the six strategic directions as a policy framework, this report lays out a time frame for and sequencing of reforms that can take China toward its vision for 2030. We hope that it can provide a practical guide to help China’s policy makers successfully navigate this next phase of China’s development journey. We also hope that it will mark the beginning of another period of fruitful partnership between China and the World Bank.
By any standard, China’s economic performance over the last three decades has been impressive. GDP growth averaged 10 percent a year, and over 500 million people were lifted out of poverty. China is now the world’s largest exporter and manufacturer, and its second largest economy. Even if growth moderates, China is likely to become a high-income economy and the world’s largest economy before 2030, notwithstanding the fact that its per capita income would still be a fraction of the average in advanced economies. But two questions arise. Can China’s growth rate still be among the highest in the world even if it slows from its current pace？And can it maintain this rapid growth with little disruption to the world, the environment, and the fabric of its own society?
This report answers both questions in the affirmative, without downplaying the risks. By 2030, China has the potential to be a modern, harmonious, and creative high-income society. But achieving this objective will not be easy. To seize its opportunities, meet its many challenges, and realize its development vision for 2030, China needs to implement a new development strategy in its next phase of development. The reforms that launched China on its current growth trajectory were inspired by Deng Xiaoping who played an important role in building consensus for a fundamental shift in the country’s strategy. After more than 30 years of rapid growth, China has reached another turning point in its development path when a second strategic, and no less fundamental, shift is called for. The 12th Five Year Plan provides an excellent start. This report combines its key elements to design a longer-term strategy that extends to 2030. More importantly, it focuses on the “how,‖ not just the ―what.‖ Six important messages emerge from the analysis:
First, implement structural reforms to strengthen the foundations for a marketbased economy by redefining the role of government, reforming and restructuring state enterprises and banks, developing the private sector, promoting competition, and deepening reforms in the land, labor, and financial markets. As an economy approaches the technology frontier and exhausts the potential for acquiring and applying technology from abroad, the role of the government and its relationship to markets and the private sector need to change fundamentally. While providing relatively fewer ―tangible‖ public goods and services directly, the government will need to provide more intangible public goods and services like systems, rules, and policies, which increase production efficiency, promote competition, facilitate specialization, enhance the efficiency of resource allocation, protect the environment, and reduce risks and uncertainties.
In the enterprise sector, the focus will need to be further reforms of state enterprises (including measures to recalibrate the role of public resources, introduce modern corporate governance practices including separating ownership from management, and implement gradual ownership diversification where necessary), private sector development and fewer barriers to entry and exit, and increased competition in all sectors, including in strategic and pillar industries. In the financial sector, it would require commercializing the banking system, gradually allowing interest rates to
be set by market forces, deepening the capital market, and developing the legal and supervisory infrastructure to ensure financial stability and build the credible foundations for the internationalization of China’s financial sector. In the labor market, China needs to accelerate phased reforms of the hukou system to ensure that by 2030 Chinese workers can move in response to market signals. It also needs to introduce measures to increase labor force participation rates, rethink wage policy, and use social security instruments (pensions, health, and unemployment insurance) that are portable nationwide. Finally, rural land markets need to be overhauled to protect farmer rights and increase efficiency of land use, and policies for acquisition of rural land for urban use must be thoroughly overhauled to prevent urban sprawl, reduce local government dependency on land-related revenues, and address a frequent cause of complaint from farmers.
Second, accelerate the pace of innovation and create an open innovation system in which competitive pressures encourage Chinese firms to engage in product and process innovation not only through their own research and development but also by participating in global research and development networks. China has already introduced a range of initiatives in establishing a research and development infrastructure and is far ahead of most other developing countries. Its priority going forward is to increase the quality of research and development, rather than just quantity. To achieve this, policy makers will need to focus on: increasing the technical and cognitive skills of university graduates and building a few world-class research universities with strong links to industry; fostering “innovative cities‖ that bring together high-quality talent, knowledge networks, dynamic firms, and learning institutions, and allow them to interact without restriction; and increasing the availability of patient risk capital for startup private firms.
Third, seize the opportunity to ―go green‖ through a mix of market incentives, regulations, public investments, industrial policy, and institutional development. Encouraging green development and increased efficiency of resource use is expected to not only improve the level of well-being and sustain rapid growth, but also address China’s manifold environmental challenges. The intention is to encourage new investments in a range of low-pollution, energy- and resource-efficient industries that would lead to greener development, spur investments in related upstream and downstream manufacturing and services, and build international competitive advantage in a global sunrise industry. These policies have the potential to succeed, given China's many advantages—its large market size that will allow rapid scaling up of successful technologies to achieve economies of scale and reduced unit costs, a high investment rate that will permit rapid replacement of old, inefficient, and environmentally damaging capital stock; its growing and dynamic private sector that will respond to new signals from government, provided it gets access to adequate levels of finance; and a relatively well-developed research and development infrastructure that can be harnessed to reach and then expand the ―green‖ technology frontier.
Fourth, expand opportunities and promote social security for all by facilitating equal access to jobs, finance, quality social services, and portable social security. These policies will be critical in reversing rising inequality, helping households manage employment-, health-, and age-related risks, and increasing labor mobility. China’s relatively high social and economic inequality (some dimensions of which have been increasing) stems in large part from large rural-urban differences in access to jobs, key public services, and social protection. Reversing this trend requires three
coordinated actions: delivering more and better quality public services to underserved rural areas and migrant populations from early childhood to tertiary education institutions and from primary health care to care for the aged; restructuring social security systems to ensure secure social safety nets; and mobilizing all segments of society— public and private, government and social organizations—to share responsibilities in financing, delivering and monitoring the delivery of social services.
Fifth, strengthen the fiscal system by mobilizing additional revenues and ensuring local governments have adequate financing to meet heavy and rising expenditure responsibilities. Many of the reforms proposed in this development strategy—enterprise and financial sector reforms, green development, equality of opportunity for all—have implications for the level and allocation of public expenditures. Over the next two decades, the agenda for strengthening the fiscal system will involve three key dimensions: mobilizing additional fiscal resources to meet rising budgetary demands; reallocating spending toward social and environmental objectives; and ensuring that budgetary resources available at different levels of government (central, provincial, prefectural, county, township, village) are commensurate with expenditure responsibilities. Without appropriate fiscal reforms, many of the other reform elements of the new development strategy would be difficult to move forward.
Sixth, seek mutually beneficial relations with the world by becoming a pro-active stakeholder in the global economy, actively using multilateral institutions and frameworks, and shaping the global governance agenda. China’s integration with the global economy served it well over the past three decades. By continuing to intensify its trade, investment, and financial links with the global economy over the next two decades, China will be able to benefit from further specialization,increased investment opportunities and higher returns to capital, and mutually beneficial flow of ideas and knowledge. As a key stakeholder in the global economy, China must remain pro-active in resuscitating the stalled Doha multilateral trade negotiations, advocate ―open regionalism‖ as a feature of regional trading arrangements, and support a multilateral agreement on investment flows. Integrating the Chinese financial sector with the global financial system, which will involve opening the capital account (among other things), will need to be undertaken steadily and with considerable care, but it will be a key step toward internationalizing the renminbi as a global reserve currency. Finally, China must play a central role in engaging with its partners in multilateral settings to shape the global governance agenda and address pressing global economic issues such as climate change, global financial stability, and a more effective international aid architecture that serves the cause of development in poor nations less fortunate than China.
中国经济过去30年的表现是建设性的。其特色的发展模式——自主创造和国际竞争；全球一体化；适应新科技；世界级的基础建设；深化国民投资，其他发展中国家提供了宝贵的资料。
接下来的15-20年，中国当之无愧将加入世界高收入国家的行列。中国的决策人正在关注如何改变增长策略以回应即将到来的新挑战，防止陷入“中产陷阱”。这在十一五和十二五计划中都有所反应，政府聚焦质量增长、体制改革以期平稳创新，形成高效型经济，统筹城乡划分，缩小收入差距。
为了庆祝中国加入世界银行30周年，20xx年作出了这份中国发展报告。为了纪念这个里程碑，Zoellick行长向中国领导人提议共同完成这份中国对20xx年展望的中期发展战略报告。中国与世界银行将一起对世界经验和中国自己的成功发展记录作出研究，为战略性改革构架做准备，这不仅对中国政策有帮助，也将指导未来中国与世界银行的关系。中国的政府领导人也非常的欢迎和支持这份提议。
报告：中国20xx年——构建一个现代的，和谐的，高收入的创造型社会，代表了工作的结果。中国金融部（MOF），国家发展研究中心委员会（DRC），世界银行参与了这份研究，DRC和世界银行平等地共同参与这份报告的撰写。团队主持了很多场研究会议，准备了很多研究和背景资料，达成了对友谊关系和相互尊重的共识。预报告于20xx年10月3日世界高级峰会作出，会议上很多中国和国际专家提出了有益的评论和指导。这册就是基于这些评论和后期工作，由团委授权撰写。
报告是基于对中国到达20xx年成为一个现代化、和谐的、高收入的创造型社会的可能性的确信。
为了达到这个目标，中国必须改变政策和机构构架。中国下一阶段的发展需要建立在完备的驱动力上——高储蓄，大量的高技能劳动力，未来城镇化的潜力——外部资本化机会包括继续全球化，其他新生的经济快速增长，新技术的承诺。同时，中国需要解决重要的挑战和风险，例如人口老龄化，不公平风险，巨大的和增加的环境缺陷，顽固的外部不平衡性。这份报告提出了6种中国新发展战略方向。第一，重新思考政府和私企的角色，鼓励增加的经济竞争。第二，鼓励创新，采用与全球研究和发展网络联系的开放的创新体系。第三，寻求绿色发展模式作为新增长机会。第四，促进公平的机会和社会保障。第五，强化财政系统和改善财政稳定性。第六，确证作为国际赎金持有者的中国，继续与全球市场的整合。 十二五计划作为一个起点，6大战略方向作为政策概念方向，这份报告展示了一个达成20xx年远景的时间表和改革序列。我们希望，它可以提供一个现实的指导来帮助中国决策者成功地指引中国发展之旅。我们也希望它可以标牌中国与世界银行伙伴关系硕果累累的另一个开端。
报告总述
中国发展战略六点建议
第一， 实行体制改革来强化基于市场的经济。重新定义政府的角色，改革和调整国企和银
行，发展私企，促进竞争，深化土地、劳动力、金融市场改革。技术限制和国外可获得技术的潜力衰竭，政府的角色和政府与市场和私企的关系需要本质性地改变。提供相对更少的直接的实际公共物品和服务，政府需要提供更多的无形产品和服务，比如体系，规则，政策，这将增加生产效率，促进竞争，使设施正规化，提高资源的配给，保护环境，减少风险和不确定性。
企业单位，应该聚焦国企的进一步改革（包括重新定位公有资源，引进现代合作管理方法实践，例如分离管理者所有制关系，逐渐实施必要的所有制多样化）。更少的进入和退出壁垒有利于鼓励私企的发展，在国有企业中增加竞争，包括战略性支柱产业。金融企业应该使银行体系的商业化，逐渐允许依据市场力量的利率，深化资本市场，发展法律和监管基层来保证金融稳定性，为中国金融企业国际化建立信用基础。劳动力市场，中国需要加速“补口体系”阶段改革，以期到20xx年，中国工人能够响应市场信号。政府仍然需要实施措施来增加劳动力参与率的强度，重新思考工资政策，使用国际范围经用的社会保障工具（养老金，健康医疗，下岗补贴）。最后，应该彻查农村土地市场来保护农民权益，增加土地利用效率，城镇对农村土
地的使用政策必须彻查来防止城镇蔓延，减少当地政府对土地税收的依赖，听取农民的频繁纠纷的申诉。
第二， 加速革新进程，创建开放的革新体系。竞争压力会鼓励中国公司投入产品和流程创
新，不仅在自主研发和发展上，也在于加入全球研发网络。中国已经在研究和发展基层上领先于世界其他国家。这种优先权将在研究和发展上增加质量，而不只是数量。为了达到这个目的，政策制定者需要关注：增加大学生的科技和认知技能，建立少数与企业联系的世界级的研究大学；孵化具有高端才能，知识网络，有动力的公司，学习机构的创新型城市，允许他们不加限制的相互交流，增加创业的风险耐受资金的可获得性。
第三， 通过混合市场激励，规章制度，公共投资，工厂政策，机构发展，抓住绿色道路的
机会。鼓励绿色发展，增加资源使用的有效性不仅会增加福利级别，可持续发展，也能解决中国的多重环境挑战。这种目的在于鼓励投资低污染、能够引领绿色发展的能源和资源有效企业，刺激上、下游相关企业和服务的发展，建立全球朝阳企业的国际化竞争优势。这些政策成功潜力巨大，中国的多数优势在于它巨大的市场规模，使得可以通过快速的大规模技术成果达到经济规模和减少单位成本，高额投资率允许快速代替旧的、无效的、危害环境的资金。增长的和动态的私营企业将回应政府的新信号，提供获得金融投资的通道；相关的发展良好的研究和发展基层可以通过控制快速补给，延展绿色技术壁垒。
第四， 通过推动就业、金融、社会服务质量的公平性和持久的社会安全扩展机会，促进全
社会安全。这些政策在扭转不平等风险，帮助家庭管理就业、健康、年龄危机，增加劳动力灵活性上至关重要。中国社会、经济的高度不均衡性滋生出（有些地域有了很大的发展）大范围的城乡就业、关键公共服务、社会保障的巨大差异。扭转这些趋势需要3点主要措施：向服务不及的乡村输入更多的和更好的公共服务，从三线教育机构和基层保健机构移居人口到乡村来保证儿童期的教育和老龄人口的健康保障；重新建立社会保障体系保证社会安全；动员社会资源——公共的，私有的，政府和社会组织——共同承担金融责任，输入和检测社会服务的财产移交。
第五， 通过动员额外税收，保证当地政府可以获得资金实现日益繁重的开支负担强化财政
体系。很多改革提议这项发展战略——企业和金融机构改革，绿色增长；全社会机会的平等性——都牵涉到公共花费的分配和标准。未来20年，财政体系强化将走向议程，它涉及3方面：动用国库资金应对增长的预算需求；重新分配社会和环境目标的开支；保障不同级别政府切实获得与花费负担相称的财政资金。没有适当的财政改革，其他改革元素和发展战略都很难前进。
第六， 通过国际融资，多边的结构和组织的合作，定型全球管理议程来寻求共同利益群体
的合作关系。中国过去30年与全球经济融合进行地很好。继续加强与全球的贸易，投资，金融联系，中国将能够在进一步的专业化、增加的投资机会和和资本的高回报，想法、知识的有利交流上受益。作为世界经济的关键赎金保管者，中国必须保持在多哈多边贸易协定失利后的正面复苏行为，倡导“开放区域”作为区域贸易计划的特区，支持投资流入的多边协议。将中国金融企业整合进世界金融体系，将会带来开放的资本环境，需要稳步地谨慎地进行，这将是人民币作为全球流通货币国际化的关键一步。最后，中国必须在政治格局议程的多边伙伴关系设置上发挥作用，强调全球实际议题比如气候变化，全球金融稳定性，对比中国更不幸的贫穷落后发展中国家更多有效的国际建筑援助。