北美范文》

GRE作文大讲堂》、

全国高频加厦门08年1-3月的高频，按技术、政治、历史、教育、学科类的顺序来列提纲，搜资料的。看过所有ISSUE题，重点了解高频题。还是建议大家尽早上机练习（在这里，感谢大家的提点），这样才会有时间的压迫感，这可是建议中的铁律呀~背过的句型在模考时要记得用上，不要担心自己能力不够，多用就会熟练（呵呵，学下牛人的口吻）。

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例子也最好按分类准备，比如说技术类，准备一批，政治类，准备一批，这样就容易融会贯通，后期会发现有时候一个例子几乎全通用，只要你有心，没有用不上的~呵呵，看你怎么掰了~而且例子方面建议要勤快更换，参考书和网上的一些例子几乎都被用烂了（可是我在考场上这点做得不好，用了老例子~），最好是自己了解的例子，用时可以手到擒来，并且不容易出错。像我用的政治类和艺术类的例子大多是China的，China的领导人，China的文学家，China的历史事件，呵呵，毕竟对自己国家还是更有感情。修瑞曾经说过，应尽量用老美了解的例子，美国的历史，欧洲的艺术家，希腊和罗马的文化，还有圣经。但是，短期内还真是难以完全“欧美化”，况且评分人不都是“truly edcated”的吗？相信他们的知识应该够广泛吧，China好歹是大国，重大人物和事件也应有所耳闻吧，不过也别准备的太骗偏了，估计要是给他整出个唐中宗年代的例子，除非他是研究China古代史方面的教育学者，否则还是得晕菜~

第二篇：4.北美范文Argu1

6

The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

“A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe?s jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ?Jazz Nightly,? which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money.”

It is widely held belief that it?s always wise to invest in something welcomed while not easily available in an area. Obviously, the arguer is confident in making satisfactory profit by having a jazz music club in Monroe, where jazz music is prevailing while no relevant club exists. The argument seems sound and convictive at first glance, but I am afraid that there are some flaws in it that undermined the validity.

The arguer saw Jazz?s attraction in Monroe, where the highest-rated radio program is Jazz relevant. Hence he straightly declares that a Jazz club will have a good local market there. But nowadays people are busy with their jobs and might not have enough time to patronize clubs as frequently as before. Thanks to the radio and CD sets, everyone can enjoy music anytime, anywhere. For instance, on their way back home, when preparing dinner, or before sleeping. While going clubs, on the other hand, might be something too luxurious for them to afford for lacking of time. A further investigation on how often people of Monroe will go to jazz clubs is needed before the arguer can sweep out the doubt whether the C-note club will have enough customer.

Jazz, as any other forms of arts, has its own relative stable group of buffs, who are likely to stick to several artists for a long time, which means people will not turn to another club or artist so easily as try another brand of milk. So if the investors of C-note want to see good reward, what they have to do is much more than just build the club and invite some jazz musicians. If they failed to offer appealing case of musicians to residents of Monroe, I?m afraid the sincere fans will burden to drive 65 miles to another club or simpler, just stay at home listening to CDs of their favorite singers.

The arguer quotes from a nationwide survey that approximately $1000 is spent by a typical buff on jazz entertainments, and he presents it as strong proof that the C-note will have a bright future with the generosity of jazz fans. But it?s rather na?ve to believe that considerable part of this $1000 will be spent on C-note, because it?s highly possible that invest on Hi-Fi, CDs, music instruments occupy a large part, while spending on going clubs might be just trifles. If the arguer can present with specified items of the percentages spent on different kind of jazz consuming, then we can have a more precise picture of the C-note?s future.

Anyway, I agree that it?s highly possible that building a jazz club in Monroe will have good rewarding. But further investigation and analysis are needed before the further conclusion and ultimate action.

17

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.

“Walnut Grove?s town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC?s fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ--which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks--has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year?s town survey agreed that they were ?satisfied? with EZ?s performance.”

The arguer?s view seems to be sound and convincing at first glance that Walnut Crove town should stick to EZ Disposal rather than turn to ABC Waste even if the former raises its monthly fee for 25% because EZ are offering satisfactory service to the town., which is worth the more money it asks for. However, I?m afraid his argument can hardly bear further consideration since there are several flaws in it.

One seemingly overwhelming advantage of EZ Disposal over ABC Waste is that the former collects trash twice a week while the latter, however, only once. The arguer lays such emphasis on it that gives us the impression that EZ offers double service only for a 25% rise in price compared to ABC Waste. However, we can hardly find any evidence that it?s not redundant for EZ Disposal to do so. In other word, there might not be so much trash as have to been collected twice a week in Walnut Crove. Especially, if the landfill of Walnut Crove is kept under good condition, without the problem of environment contamination, then collection of once a week is enough, which ironically shows the low efficiency of EZ Disposal. It?s absurd to ask people to pay for the low work efficiency with a reason such as double quantity of work.

EZ Disposal?s ordering of additional trucks, on the other hand, is another seemingly powerful reason the arguer present to show EZ will offer better service to the town. But he fails to see the possibility that EZ has to update its trucks, which are old and out of service, rather than add to it?s fleet new trucks. It is unfair if EZ includes this updating fee into the service price, while the people of Walnut Crove wouldn?t see any more additional improvement in the service it provides than those they deserve.

The proportion that 80% respondents are satisfied with EZ?s performance seems to be convincing. However, there are questionable factors: Will the respondents still be satisfied even if the price rises 25%? Have the respondents got the chance to try ABC Waste?s service and thus gave a fair comparison between the two? The arguer obviously ignored these by only focus on the absolute figure.

Everyone likes to get better service on relatively lower price. But when things are not the case, a second consideration with rational analysis, comparison and evaluation is needed to see whether the expensive one really worth it.

24

The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.

“In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant. Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant. First, of the locations that we have considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average wage earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep production costs low. Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview?s town council has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes.”

Grandview seems to be the best choice as the new location for a large central plant of Viva-Tech in the arguer?s point of view with its sufficient adult population, low average wage level and the three years? taxes free policy offered by the town council. These certainly will be advantages for such industries as massive productivity, which need a lot of labors in low wages. When things come to high-tech industries like Viva-Tech, however, much more important things have to be taken into consideration before making decision on such important things as new plant location.

High-Tech industries, unlike traditional industries like iron and steel industry or textiles industry, which need cheap massive labors without special request for high intellectual or complex techniques, look forward to their qualified employees to have specific knowledge. Viva-Tech focuses on the manufacture of high-tech medical equipments. So those without relevant backgrounds in electronically engineering, mechanical engineering or biotech engineering may not be able to do the highly intellectual jobs. Grandview has largest adult population among the several cities in consideration. Yet

we have no idea whether there are enough qualified high-tech workers and engineers, which are crucial to staff the new plant.

Low wage is always appealing to employers, which also attracts the arguer to advocate locating the new plant at the low-wage Grandview. Unfortunately he pays much too attention to the cost on personnel while ignores several essential factors: first, low-wage, to some extent, implies low technique level of the city. If Viva-Tech is to set up its new plant there, it will have to spend much more on recruiting high-tech engineers and workers from outside. On the other hand, low wage with large work force may mean the poor transport condition and links with nearby cities. This may well be the drawback when the new central plant is built here by making difficult the convey of materials and products in and out the city.

The arguer may insist that, anyway, the three-year tax-free is too attractive an offer to be neglected. It does appeal, yet if we ask why the town council of Grandview can provide so marvelous a policy, which is unlikely to be provided in anywhere else, we can reach the conclusion that, there must be few or even no such high-tech companies in Grandview. This in turn convinces us our assumption of relative low technical level and other disadvantages like poor transportation of the city.

In sum, it?s unwise to make rash decision on building the new central plant in Grandview only taking the superficial advantages into account. More detailed survey of the technical level and other important issues should be taken.

40

The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets.

"In 90 towns where Excello has food markets, natural-food stores specializing in organic food products—products containing no chemical preservatives and made with foods grown without pesticides—have opened nearby as competitors. Surveys of our own customers reveal a growing concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals. Recently our market in Sun City participated in a local food tasting fair, and 75 percent of the fair goers who visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit. Such evidence indicates that to increase our profits, we should begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets."

At first glance, the arguer?s reasoning seems to be quite sound. According to his conclusion, the profit of his company will be raised if they stock a full line of organic food products in all their markets. But unfortunately, if we make a careful consideration of his evidence, doubt will be cast on this conclusion and apprehension will be heaped on this company?s future performance.

First of all, the results of the survey conducted by this company are neither relevant

nor convincing. It only implies that customers? concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals is increasing, while it doesn?t necessarily mean that these customers will give up eating these foods and turn to organic foods. They may still have the non-organic foods, since it?s common sense that non-organic foods are usually cheaper than organic foods. Their consideration about price may exceed the concern about whether the food is organic or not. Also, the survey just gives us a description of the customers? psychological characteristics, not their realistic behaviors. As we know, although sometimes, behavior may totally reflect people?s psychological state, in most of the cases, one?s behavior is affected by many other factors. Therefore when we try to get a conclusion about one?s behavior just from his or her psychological preference, we should always be aware of making mistakes. In this case, the customers in the survey may still purchase non-organic foods under the influence of other unforeseeable factors.

When we probe into the result of the food testing fair, we may find even bigger flaws in it. Firstly, it was only carried out in Sun City, but the arguer applies its result to all the company?s markets while doesn?t show us whether Sun City is a representative market of the whole markets. Secondly, it is noticed that those samples of organic fruit is offered for free, not for sale. So we have every reason to be doubtful about that if these foods are on sale, whether there are still so many people choose to buy them. Thirdly, the method of the statistics used in this case also arouses skepticism. It only tells us 75 percent of the fair goers requested the sample, while doesn?t mention a word about what proportion of the whole citizen in this city the fair goers stand for? If the fair goers only stand for a tiny proportion of the whole city, we should not be so sure about the conclusion that the Sun City is an organic-food-loving market.

After pointing out so many obvious flaws in the argument, now we can say that the reasons used to support the conclusion cannot be relied on. Before any real commercial actions are taken, the company has to better its evaluations of the situation of its markets. More detailed and reliable surveys should be taken if the company wants to make out a profitable plan and avoid undesirable risks.

52

The following appeared in a memo to the human resources manager at Baobob Inc., a large architectural firm.

"Several well-known, retired architects were interviewed in Architecture Today about changes in the field. Only one had earned a college degree in architecture. All others had come into the field at an early age by serving apprenticeships that required them to work under the direct supervision of an experienced architect. Several of the colleges that we recruit from report that many promising architecture students leave school early in their undergraduate career.

Therefore, because finding talented architecture graduates is becoming more difficult, Baobob Inc. should start an aggressive apprenticeship program and hire students who express an interest in architecture directly out of high school rather than wait for them to get out of college."

In this argument, the arguer recommends that Baobob Inc., a large architectural firm, should start an aggressive apprenticeship program and hire students who have interests in architecture directly out of high school. This recommendation is based on the inquiry that in the several well-known, retired architects who were interview in Architecture Today, only one has a college degree in architecture. In addition, he cites the report of several architecture colleges, which said many promising architecture students leave school before graduate. The argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

First, the arguer fails to take into account that the society in which the famous architects live is different from today. The main one is that the society is developed rapidly during the later of the 20th centuray, especially during the past twenty years, so the level of life, education and technology have go up a big step. For example, it is well known that in the early days going to high school was luxurious and only wealth people could afford the high fees. But today there are so many high colleges that almost everyone has an opportunity to make a further study only if you can pass the entrance examination. That the architects mentioned in the argument rarely have college degree may contribute to the lack of high colleges and funds, not because that without a college degree is helpful for them to be well known in the circle of architect.

Second, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. In the argument, the arguer cites the report that many promising architecture student leave school early before graduate, but it is doesn?t mention how they work after leaving school and how many of them has developed into excellent architects. In addition the arguer does not provide evidences that the graduate architectural students are less competent than the undergraduate ones. It does not come to the conclusion that without a college degree is beneficial for the architects while with one will damper the graduate architects reaching to the success.

To sum up, starting an aggressive apprenticeship program and hiring students who express an interest in architecture directly out of high school rather than waiting for them to get out of college does not promise to be helpful. To strength the argument, the arguer should have to provide the providence that the graduated students are less excellent than the undergraduate ones. To better valuate the recommendation, we would need more information that the college degree will be a debacle to the success.

61

The following appeared in a report by the School District of Eyleria.

"Nationally, the average ratio of computers to students in kindergarten through grade 12 (K-12) is 1:5. Educators indicate that this is very good ratio. This means that across the country, all students have access to and can use computers daily in their classrooms. In Eyleria's K-12 schools, the ratio of computers to students is 1:7. This number is sufficient to ensure that all of Eyleria's students, by the time they graduate from high school, will be fully proficient in the use of computer technology. Thus, there is no reason to spend any of the schools' budget on computers or other technology in the next few years."

Conclusion of this argument is that schools of Eyleria should no more spend budget on computers or other technology in the next few years. The author?s reason is solely that there is high ratio of computer using within students in national average or even in Eyleria. The argument is unconvincing because it commits several fallacies like cited below.

Firstly, the conclusion that “all students have access to and can use computers daily in their classrooms” is not based upon sufficient evidences. All we could know from the argument is that the average ratio of computer using in k-12 students may be high, but the author has never quoted other students? conditions besides k-12 ones, nor has he/she ever dropped a word into the trend of using computer. How could he/she know that other students also attach importance in using computer just as k-12 ones? We may imagine that if the ratio of students to computer, who are in the grade besides k-12, is much lower than the k-12 average, then the conclusion will be weaken.

Secondly, the ratio of computers to students in Eyleria, which is 1:7, is apparently lower than national average ratio, which is 1:5. From this fact we could realize that the popularization of computer in Eyleria is not so well developed as the average. The arguer has never concerned about what is the criteria of depending whether the ratio is “good”, as he/she says. And there also exists a doubtful point, that as time goes by, the computer technology and the learning surroundings or conditions of which may change a lot, how could we draw a conclusions that the students will keep on with their enthusiasm of learning or using computer and being fully proficient in it, when they pass from k-12 to high school? Apparently, here lacks of convincing points.

Thirdly, given that the common use of computer in Eyleria does exist and does have its tendency to increase in the future, the situation of other fields of technology remains unknown because the author has never refer to these. While this may be the same as computer in some cases, it is equally possible that only few categories of knowledge has attract educators? attentions, and some may need to be well developed.

In sum, the author makes many logical errors, thus his opinion is highly unacceptable.

If he/she had taken the above problems into account more seriously and incisively, the argument would be better.

73

The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."

In this argument, the arguer advocates that his company should shift the focus of their business from selling cars to leasing cars. To support the argument, the arguer assumes that long-term car leasing has steadily risen in popularity in his country of Mohilia. Meanwhile, to support the recommendation, he assumes that the majority of drivers will be driving leased instead of individually owned cars if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year. However, this argument suffers from several critical fallacies though it seems logical at first glance.

The main problem in this argument is that the fact that the number leasing news cars business surpassing buying new cars does not necessarily imply a steady increase of car leasing business. The arguer cites that the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars and again the new car leases outnumber purchases this year. Although these statistics has justified that car leasing business in this Mohilia is prosperous, there is no guarantee that new car leases is rising. The arguer?s assumption of rising in car leasing business is completely unfounded.

Another point worth considering is that the arguer fails to take into account profit factor that would lend support to the decision he made. Even if the new car leasing business will see a boom shortly, no evidence show that this business is profitable for his company. It is possible that running a car selling business would be more lucrative compared with car leasing for this company. It is equally possible that his company is not experienced in car leasing business and is not guaranteed to overshoot other rivals in this field, or share certain proportion of the market at least.

As it stands, the argument is not convincing and the decision should be reconsidered. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence that car leasing is assuredly rising. To better evaluate the decision, he should demonstrate that car leasing is profitable for this company in the long run.

79

The following appeared in a magazine for the trucking industry.

"The Longhaul trucking company was concerned that its annual accident rate (the number of accidents per mile driven) was too high. It granted a significant pay increase to its drivers and increased its training standards. It also put strict limits on the number of hours per week each driver could drive. The following year, its trucks were involved in half the number of accidents as before the changes were implemented. A survey of other trucking companies found that the highest-paid drivers were the least likely to have had an accident. Therefore, trucking companies wishing to reduce their accident rate can do so simply by raising their drivers' pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive."

The arguer suggests that trucking companies should simply raise their drivers? pay and limit the overall number of hours they drive to reduce their accident rate. To support his recommendation, the arguer cites an example of the Longhual trucking company successfully reducing its annual accident rate and a survey of other trucking companies that the highest-paid drivers were the least likely to have had an accident. However, simply by raising drivers? pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive might be far from being effective in reducing the accidents.

To begin with, it might be true, as the survey indicates, that higher-paid drivers were less likely to have an accident, but it does not follow that the higher pay is the causal of less risk to have accidents. The arguer might have ignored other factors that have some correlation or causal relation with less likelihood to have an accidents, such as what have been mentioned: higher training standards, strict limits on the number of hours per week each driver could drive, and etc. Or else not mentioned in the

argument, for example, the highest-paid drivers are senior drivers who are skillful in driving and have more experience.

In addition, admittedly, the Longhual trucking company might reach a success in decrease its annual accident rate to 50 percent by granting three effective measures, but the annual accident rate might not decrease to an ideal degree. To reduce its annual accident rate to an ideal degree, more actions should be carried out, such as limiting the continuous driving hours to prevent drivers from being too tired. As we all know, tiredness is a significant cause of accident.

What?s more, situations in different company differ greatly, so that, each company should take different measures against its own problem which mainly cause the high accident rates rather than simply raising drivers? pay and limiting the overall number of driving hours.

Consequently, for lack of some details of the Longhaul trucking company and the survey, the arguer?s suggestion is not acceptable. More factors should be taken into account in reducing the annual accidents according to the feature of different trucking company.

88

The following appeared in a newsletter about health published in the country of Sauria. "According to Sauria's leading nutritional experts, a diet high in complex carbohydrates, and low in fat is optimal for good health and longevity. Because this was the diet of the people who lived in ancient Sauria, one would expect them to have had long and healthy lives. Yet the mummified remains of Sauria's ruling classes from two to three thousand years ago show the existence of many medical problems among the ancient Saurians, including dental problems, elevated blood pressure, obesity, heart disease, and early mortality. Clearly, the diet of the ancient Saurians was responsible for these problems. The high incidence of high blood pressure, obesity, and heart disease in Sauria today even among those who have tried low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets further proves that Sauria's leading nutritional experts are wrong."

By considering the low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets of the ancient Saurians and the variety of medical problems of them, the author arrives at the conclusion that nutritional experts are totally wrong to recommend people to apply such a diet as effective way to ensure good health and longevity. What?s more, the author insists that

the high incidence of high blood pressure, obesity and heart disease actually stem from this diet. Plausible as it may seem, the author?s argument leaves much to be questioned.

As we all know, all lives are evolving and so are human beings. Both the environment and the physical situation have changed a lot from ancient Sauria to present. Although mummified remains of ancient Sauria?s people show the existence of many medical problems much like what are prevailing today in Sauria, the author ignores the fact that these mummies were among the ruling classes in lifetime. This means that they were able to get more than sufficient nutrition, which may have led to their healthy problems. The average people of ancient Sauria, however, might not have been so lucky as to have meat and fish in everyday life, and consequently their diets were really the same as the one recommended by expert today. If they had been made into mummies, we might have found that they were free from high blood pressure, obesity, heart disease and other problems caused by high-fat, low carbohydrate diet.

The existence of mortality in ancient Sauria, which has largely diminished today, also proves that the medical condition of ancient Sauria is poor. And this limitation may account for a large portion of diseases assaulted ancient Sauria. Although the average life span of ancient Saurians might not been very long, it must not have been the fault of this low-fat, high carbohydrate diet.

And the author also makes a lethal mistake by reverting the relationship between cause and result. He/she tries to convince us that it is this low-fat, high-carbohydrate diet that causes those healthy problems modern Saurians have today. Yet if we think otherwise, it is much more possible that those who have been struck by those disease are trying to improve their health by applying this low-fat, high-carbohydrate diet. After a period of low-fat diet, these people may have seen ameliorations of their health, their blood pressure decreased, their weights go down and so does heart attack rate.

The improvements of life standard also bring troubles to modern Saurians. It may be easier for normal modern Saurians to get as much as possible high-fat food than the ruling classes ancient Saurians and therefore it is quite natural that they will suffer the same diseases as those ancient riches. A low-fat, high-carbohydrate diet must be helpful to see to this condition.

106

The following editorial appeared in a newspaper in the country of Solaria.

"The Eliot Valley region was primarily agricultural twenty years ago. In the past twenty years, however, many computer-chip manufacturers have opened factories there. A recent study found that water pollution in the region was worse than in any other region in the country. Moreover, the computer-chip factories, which use large quantities of water to manufacture the

chips, are probably responsible for the low levels of water in the region's lakes and reservoirs. Therefore, if the region's computer-chip makers had limits placed on the amount of water they could use, water quality would improve."

Based on a recent study of water pollution in the country and a possible correlation between the low water levels and the water consumption by computer-chip factories, the author concludes that water quality would be improve if limits were placed on the amount of water used by those computer-chip factors. The argument appears reasonable at the first glance; however, there are several flaws by a careful consideration.

To begin with, the author unfairly assumes that the establishment of computer-chip factories bears some relation to the worse water pollution in the country given that the study regarding the water pollution is true. However, the author provides no evidence to support that this is not the case, nor he or she establish a causal relationship between the water pollution and those factories. It is highly possible that other factors might contribute to the water pollution in this region. For example, maybe some heavy-industrial factories have been appearing in this region in the past twenty years and they have brought about serious water pollution. Or it is also possible that there is no strict law on the limit of the disposal of pollutants in the country, which exacerbates the water pollution in this region. Without ruling out these and other possible factors attributable to the water pollution in this region and providing concrete evidence linking the causal relationship between those computer-chip factors and water pollution, the conclusion is completely unwarranted.

Next, it is without justification to assume that the computer-chip factors are responsible for the low levels of water in the region's lakes and reservoirs. First, there is no information concerning how much water these computer-chip factors indeed consume. Second, we are not told about at what percentage the water consumed by computer-chip factories covers the whole water consumption in this region. All we know from the argument is that they use "large quantities of water”, which is too vague and therefore no reliable conclusion can be drawn from it. In addition, there are maybe other possibilities that give rise to the low water levels in the region's lakes and reservoirs. It may be the case that geographically the water level in this region is low. Also, maybe some other water-consuming industries in this region, say, paper maker, have caused the low water level.

Finally, there is no guarantee that would quality would improve if computer-chip factories set limits on their water consumption. By simply decreasing the amount of water those factories use, it would be futile if the pollutants increase. There are maybe other better ways, such as introducing effective water purifying program, to better solve the problem.

In summary, the argument is not persuasive as it stands. To make it more convincing, the author would have to provide reliable evidence support the causal relationship between computer -chip factories and water pollution. To enhance the argument,

other factors that give rise to water pollution should be ruled out.

116

The following appeared in a memo from Grocery Town's regional manager.

"The new Grocery Town store in Elm City, located near a new residential development, has a 'high-low' pricing policy where average prices are relatively high, but deep discounts are offered on some items in weekly specials. This store has been showing increased profits every month, as the nearby residential development gets closer to full capacity. It follows that people prefer a pricing policy where they can find bargains on specific items. Since there is a new residential development planned in Oak City, we should change the pricing policy at all of our Oak City stores from our current 'everyday low prices' policy to a 'high-low' policy. This will increase the profits at all of our stores in Oak City."

The argument is apparently well presented, but not thoroughly well reasoned. To substantiate the conclusion, the speaker provide a example of how stores of Elm City settle their sale policy, which use ?high-low? pricing policy in order to benefit much profits from that. Though the reasoning seems logical at first glance, whole article suffers several fallacies after careful reflections. In fact, the thread of arguer is based on a false analogy.

First of all, the arguer doesn?t provide any evidence that Oak City stores are also located near the new resident region, which planned in Oak City. As we know, locations of stores are important to consumer conspicuously. Therefore, if locations are far from new residential region, even though the “high-low? policy is proved effective in attracting consumers in Elm City, there is no guarantee that it will just work as well for Oak City.

Secondly, the recommendation depends on the assumption that people in Oak City also prefer a pricing policy where they can find bargains on specific merchandises. How ever, the arguer fails to provide any evidence about that to substantiate this crucial assumption. It?s highly possible that the residents in Oak City don?t like that policy at all. If the ?everyday low prices? policy is preferable in Oak City, the changing of policy will destroy the interesting of the group in Oak City, that isn?t expected by the investors in Oak City. So, without considering and ruling out these and other possible things relative to attitude of people in Oak City, hence the author cannot confidently conclude that consumers in Oak City also prefer the ?high-low? policy.

In addition, we cannot enough evidence, which are about the economic condition of Oak City and rate between stores and population, to make the whole article in a reasonable analogy. If the economic condition of Oak City is not well at all, any policy of stores cannot stimulate the consuming desire of residents. Similarly, if the total

number of stores in Oak City is too many, the whole summary of merchandise beyond ability of consumers, nothing can let stores? profits go any further.

In conclusion, in order to make the suggestion more convincing and reasonable, the arguer should provide more detailed information about the analogy between Elm City and Oak City, such as whether there any difference about locations, attitudes of residents, whole economic conditions and so on. The more detailed provided, the more reasonable it is.

153

The following is from an editorial in the Midvale Observer, a local newspaper.

"Ever since the 1950's, when television sets began to appear in the average home, the rate of crimes committed by teenagers in the country of Alta has steadily increased. This increase in teenage crime parallels the increase in violence shown on television. According to several national studies, even very young children who watch a great number of television shows featuring violent scenes display more violent behavior within their home environment than do children who do not watch violent shows. Furthermore, in a survey conducted by the Observer, over 90 percent of the respondents were parents who indicated that prime-time television—programs that are shown between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m.—should show less violence. Therefore, in order to lower the rate of teenage crime in Alta, television viewers should demand that television programmers reduce the amount of violence shown during prime time."

In this argument, the arguer claims that in order to reduce the rate of teenage crime in Alta, television viewers should demand to decrease the amount of violence shown during prime time. To justify his claim, the arguer cites the results of several studies and a convey. On the first sight, this conclusion appears to be somewhat reasonable, but after a careful analysis, I find there are several flaws.

Firstly, the arguer confused the correlative relationship between the increased teenage crimes rate and the violence shown with the causal relationship. From the argument, we can only know that these two phenomena occurred at the same time. But there is no other evidence to show that violence shown contributed to the teenage delinquency. Maybe it is just a coincidence. Alternative reasons like high divorce rate, would also resulted in the increase of teenage violence. Lacking the home tendency and restriction would be the more important reason for teenage crime.

Secondly, there are some questions about the survey. Why 90% of parents demanded to decrease the violent shown? Maybe they themselves dislike such program, and so their indication has noting to do with teenage crime rate. Even though parents put forward such a suggestion for the sake of their children, I also perplexed about the restriction of 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. why such a prime time? Is it the period when the young watch TV program, but we cannot read such information from what the survey provide with us. In addition, from the survey quoted in the argument, however, we find no sign of such procedures for random sampling, and have good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect the general attitude of the parents across the country.

Thirdly, according the argument, several national studies found that the young who watch more violence shown display more violent behavior with their home environment. It cannot explain the high crime rate. After all, home violent behavior differs from crime greatly.

From what discussed above, the evidence provided does not lead to the conclusion. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the reason of high teenage crime rate. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the studies and the survey.

168

Typically, as people age, their bone mass decreases, making them more vulnerable to bone fractures. A recent study concludes that the most effective way to reduce the risk of fractures in later life is to take twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium daily. The three-year study followed a group of French women in their eighties who were nursing-home residents. The women were given daily supplements of twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium. In addition, the women participated in a light weightlifting program. After three years, these women showed a much lower rate of hip fractures than is average for their age.

In this argument, a recent study concludes that the most effective way to reduce the risk of fracture in later life is to take twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium daily. In the study, 80 years old women were given daily supplements of vitamin D and calcium. In addition, the women participated in a light weightlifting program. At the end of the study, these women showed a much lower rate of hip fractures than is average fro their age. On the first glance, it may seem reasonable, but careful weighing on the mind, we find that the argument is unconvincing for several logic flaws.

The major problem with this argument is that the arguer fails to provide strong evidence to convince us the credibility of the result of the study. Firstly, we don?t know how many women participated in the study. If the number were too small, the result would be unwarranted. Also, from the study quoted in the argument, we find no sign of such procedures for random sampling, and have good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect the general conditions of the old people as a whole. Secondly, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. In the study, only women in eighties were chosen, while the conclusion is extended to the whole aged people. It is well known that women and men are distinct physiologically. And people of different age have different health condition. So even if vitamin D and calcium is beneficial to 80 years old women, we may doubt that vitamin D and calcium would also help other old people.

Another problem that weakens the logic of the argument is that the arguer fails to rule out the alternative reasons that should contribute the lower rate of hip fractures of the samples than in average for their age. According to the study, all participants were nursing-home residents. So except for daily using of vitamin D and calcium, it is likely that the women received other professional medicine care measures. For example, the old can be taught how to protect themselves from being injured, how to avoid the dangerous behaviors and activities. Also, maybe the nurses massaged the old women in a given time. All these measures or factors can contribute the good health of the participant women. In addition, the ole women also participated in a light weightlifting program. This activity may also help to strengthen the bone flexibility of old people, so that decreasing the rate of hip fractures.

In addition, the twice of the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium may give rise to side effects. So if no evidence can be available to attest the safety of overdose taking of vitamin D and calcium, it is improper for old people using then daily.

In sum, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence to convince us that the old women and the old men of different ages are similar in every aspect. To better evaluate the argument; we would need more information regarding the effect of vitamin D and calcium.

177

The following is a letter that recently appeared in the Oak City Gazette, a local newspaper. "Membership in Oak City's Civic Club—a club whose primary objective is to discuss local

issues—should continue to be restricted to people who live in Oak City. People who work in Oak City but who live elsewhere cannot truly understand the business and politics of the city. It is important to restrict membership to city residents because only residents pay city taxes and therefore only residents understand how the money could best be used to improve the city. At any rate, restricting membership in this way is unlikely to disappoint many of the nonresidents employed in Oak City, since neighboring Elm City's Civic Club has always had an open membership policy, and only twenty-five nonresidents have joined Elm City's Club in the last ten years."

1---no evidence is given to demonstrate that those people who work in O C but live elsewhere cannot really understand the business and politics of the city. Maybe most of the businessmen in O C come from other cities. If it is the case, it is impossible that they do not truly known the situation of OC. On the contrary, they are just those who are aware of the business and politics there most clearly.

2---the author unfairly assumes that only those local residents pay taxes to its government, which lacks evidence. As the author points out in the argument, there are people works in O C but they do not live there. Then the possibility that some local residents living in O C work in other places exists. It is highly possible that they do not understand the local business clearly as expected.

3---the author conducts a false analogy between E C and OC .He or she ignores the differences of them. Though in the past ten years only 25 nonresidents were included in the E C'Club, no information indicates that they did not play an important role in the club because the total number of members in the club is not pointed out. If there are 50 members in the club totally during the past years, conclusion will be reached that nonresidents should not be ignored in the process of electing members. On the other hand, if it is true in E C the nonresidents are not important/are not dominated as supposed, the detailed situation concerning those nonresidents in O C remains unknown, which causes the claim unconvincing. Thus the suggestion will lead to disappointment and discontent of nonresidents in O C.

190

The following is a letter to the editor of the Glenville Gazette, a local newspaper.

"Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, indicating lack of community support. Although the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concerts even in bad weather. Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice of music, so the organizers of the concert should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include music composed by Richerts, whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings. This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts."

In the argument, the arguer concludes that it is undoubtedly that to feature more modern music including Richerts? music could increase advance tickets purchases and increase attendance at the concerts. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that the unpredictable weather does not lead to the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Concert to decline. In addition, the arguer reasons that it is clear that the reason for the decline is the choice of music. The argument is problematic for two reasons.

In the first place, the arguer fails to consider other factors that may influence the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Concert. For instance, the residents may prefer other entertainment now; they may not afford the advance tickets because the fees of the advance tickets have been improved. It is possible that they like to stay home chatting with the family, not go out. Consequently, in the absence of all this information, it is impossible for us to evaluate the reason that the arguer concludes.

In the second place, the argument is based on an unwarranted assumption that to feature more modern music including Richerts? music could increase advance tickets purchases. Even if the reason for the decline is the choice of music, it does not follow that feature more modern music including Richerts? music could increase advance tickets purchase. The residents may prefer classic music rather than modern music. Although Richerts? recordings sell better than other contemporary recordings, there is no guarantee that Glenville residents would like go to concert to listen Richerts? music. It is more likely that Glenville residents prefer stay home to listen Richerts? music than to go to concert. Actually, the arguer? recommendation as the only way to increase advance tickets purchases would most probably turn out be ineffective and misleading.

To summary, the conclusion reached in the argument is invalid and misleading. To strengthen the conclusion, the arguer would have to provide evidence that the reason that the advance tickets purchases declined is indeed because of the choice of music. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information that the residents prefer modern music including Richerts? music.

206

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily Newspaper.

"Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league softball and soccer, over 80,000 of these young players suffered injuries. When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league softball players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure from coaches and parents to win games. Furthermore, education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities. Since the disadvantages apparently outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine."

1.While 80,000 young players were suffering injuries there might be a lot more older players injured, too. Figures are needed in that aspect for a comparison..

2.Psychological pressure from coaches and parents to win games exists in most players in softball and soccer and all the other sports, too, ranging in all ages. Children below nine can?t be scapegoats just because they are young and weak, and the field of softball or soccer shouldn?t be singled out as the unique target.

3.Students over nine are usually required to spend more time than those smaller kids under nine on academic activities. The grounds for the discontinuance of the organization of athletic competition for children fewer than nine are not sound. The small kids would feel unfair treatment compared with their elder school brothers who still enjoy the play in their teams.

4.The arguer failed to mention any advantages before hastily conclude that the disadvantages outweigh the advantages. If he had tried, he would probably have found many, among which the major one might be; they would demonstrate more experiences and skills when reaching higher ages then the present older age groups.

218

The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.

"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."

236

The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a local Solano newspaper.

"The Solano school district should do away with its music education programs. After all, music programs are not especially popular in our schools: only 20 percent of our high school students participated in music programs last year. Furthermore, very few of the Solano district's college-bound students are interested in majoring in music at the university level. Also, when the school district of our neighboring town of Rutherford eliminated its music programs two years ago, the overall grade point average in the high school increased by 10 percent the next year. Surely the money spent on Solano music programs could be better used to improve the quality of traditional academic courses."

238

The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Mira Vista College to the college's board of trustees.

"At nearby Green Mountain College, which has more business courses and more job counselors than does Mira Vista College, 90 percent of last year's graduating seniors had job offers from prospective employers. But at Mira Vista College last year, only 70 percent of the seniors who informed the placement office that they would be seeking employment had found full-time jobs within three months after graduation, and only half of these graduates were employed in their major field of study. To help Mira Vista's graduates find employment, we must offer more courses in business and computer technology and hire additional job counselors to help students with their resumés and interviewing skills."

The differentiation between last year?s graduating seniors of Mira Vista College and those of Green Mountain College leads the author to think of where the problem lies in. By comparing the amount of business courses and number of job counselors of the two colleges, the author arrives at the conclusion that it is because of these factors that Mira Vista?s graduating seniors were not so successful as their peers from Green Mountain College. Therefore he/she insists that once these two problems are solved,

Mira Vista College will see the success of its graduating seniors in job hunting. Plausible as the reasoning may be, the author has concentrated too much on this sole possibility and neglected others and therefore cannot make his argument convincing.

As we all know, there are a variety of majors of students in a college. Some study science; some pursue engineering; some devote themselves to art or literature and others take law, medical or business of course. Although business courses are necessary to those of business relevant majors, it does not follow that students of other majors have to, or benefit from them. Almost the same when it comes to computer technology courses. It is reasonable to offer them as discretionary lessons for those who are interested. Yet it makes no sense that a student who wants to be an engineer or dentist after graduation be obliged to take business lessons. And so does it as to make computer technology compulsory to literature majors. Obviously this will not be of help to the success of job hunting.

Although the author argues that there must be link between the business courses Mira Vista College offers and the high percentage of its graduating seniors that had job offers from prospective employers, the facts may also be interpreted in another way. Firstly, Green Mountain College may have been famous for its business school. Therefore it is natural that it offers more business courses than Mira Vista does. If the current job market is in great need of business employees, the success of Green Mountain?s graduates will be convincingly explained as well. On the other hand, colleges differentiate a lot from each other in academic reputation and research achievements. Possibly that Green Mountain College is a first class college while Mira Vista is, unfortunately, a second class one, the difference between the job offers gained by graduates from the two colleges will be understandable.

The author also takes it for granted that the job counselors of Green Mountain College must have helped a lot in the job pursuits of graduates there. It is probably true. But insofar no valid data is available to consolidate the presumption. In fact, whether job counselors are useful or not relies more on their effectiveness and efficiency rather than on the number of them. No comparisons are at hand to show the growth of job offers of Green Mountain after more job counselors were hired there.

In order to improve the situation of job-hunting of Mira Vista College, better curriculums and effective job counselors are necessary. But it will be of meager effect if the college merely provides more business and computer technology courses and jigh additional job counselors.